蓝鲸资本看空Aya报告

COMPANY: Aya Gold & Silver Inc.│TSX: AYAINDUSTRY: Silver We are short Aya Gold & Silver (TSX: AYA) (“Aya” or the “Company”) because we believe thereis overwhelming evidence thatAya inflated its silver resource at Zgounder, its only producingasset, by over 100%, potentially reflecting as many as 50+ million phantom ounces. In ouropinion,thisexplains why grades are plummeting, production has been dire, and cash flows areanemic despite soaring silver prices. PRICE (AS OF CLOSE9/24/2025)CAD 15.30MARKET CAPCAD 2.2 BN In 2019, Aya was an unprofitable, small-scale producer with a silver resource of only 38Moz at itsonly producing mine, Zgounder (in Morocco). Yet in 2020, a new CEO announced an ambitiousexpansion plan based on a proposed exploratory drilling program which Aya somehow predictedwould grow the mine’s silver resource to 100Moz. Miraculously, a highly suspicious December 2021 resource estimate claimed that the Company had somehow hit its target almost on the nose. Aya’s stock duly soared. Yet the newly discovered silver hasnot shown up, and despite management’s excuses, mining results have been dire. We think we know why: in our opinion, mostof the newly “discovered” silver is likely not there. Buried deep in the technical data from the resource estimate upon which Aya’s valuation is founded,we believe we have foundmultiple smoking guns which indicate, in our opinion, that Aya did not“discover”these ounces by extending the resourceas it claims.Instead, we believe that Aya likely created virtually all of these ounces by manipulating a computer model. Wethink Aya got away with it by quietly pushing aside the independent geologists who created Aya’s previous resource estimate justnine months earlier and giving the job to a conflicted geologist who is a close and long-time business partner to Aya’s CEO. Once investors understand that Zgounder has a terminal illness, the symptoms begin to make sense.Grades have collapsed,production ounces are a fraction of mine plan, and cash costs are more than double. Aya forecasted $120 million of cash flowwhen silver was at $22. Silver has surged to $44, yet Aya somehow reported -$8.6 million in FY2024, and this year is trackingto fall 75% short of the cash flow projections made when silver was pricing far lower. Aya, try as it might, cannot come close toreconciling its actual production with its mine plan. The reason, in our view, is because less than half the silver in the mine planis likely in the ground. Ultimately, we think Aya looks a lot like the penny stock it was before it miraculously discovered the suspicious new silver thatnever seems to materialize. 1.Zgounder Productivity Collapses as Highly Suspicious “Estimated” Ounces Fail to Materialize.In 2019, Aya was anunprofitable, small-scale producer with a modest 38Moz silver resource. It was effectively a penny stock. But that all changedupon the arrival of a new CEO who just four months into the job, launched a feasibility study for a huge mine and mill expansionthat promised a 4x-5x bump in annual production.Aya’s 38Moz resource would not support such a massive mine and millexpansion, but management was confident because it “planned” to grow the silver resource to 100Moz by December 2021.Essentially, Aya was embarking on an expansion first, and hoping to later conjure up the resource it needed to justify it.Forgeological reasons, hitting 100Moz appeared impossible. Yet, in December 2021, seemingly against all odds, Aya claimed tohave discovered 58Moz of new silver, bringing the resource’s total silver to 102Moz and hitting its previously stated 100Moztarget almost right on the nose. Less than 18 months after the new CEO’s arrival, Aya’s share price had soared as high as 819%on the promise of this new purported “discovery.”Yet if the newly discovered silver is real, investors are left wondering,where is it? a.Grades and Production are in Free Fall as Zgounder has Completely Diverged from the Mine Plan.Problems beganto appear almost immediately, leading to a cavernous discrepancy between the silver Aya claims to have discovered and thesilver it has actually pulled out of the ground.Grades have consecutively fallen in most of the past ten quarters and currentlysit at 140g/t, reflecting a 62% drop from the quarterly high mark in Q4 FY2022 and approximately 50% below theFY2024 Aya Gold & Silver Inc.│TSX: AYA and FY2025 mine plans. For two years, quarter-after-quarter, management blames anemic grades on one or another ever-evolving “one-off” operational issue.However, we think that the results clearly show that Zgounder’s problems are not“one-off”—they are endemic to the resource. Just look at the chart. Zgounder is now in a complete free fall. But it’s not just grades. Production ounces are already several millions behind themine plan and cash costs are up and, despite soaring silver prices, Aya produced negative cash flow in FY2024 and this yearit is tracking to fall 75% short of its promised $120 mill