25H1归母净利润同比增长35%，股份回购彰显信心

25H1归母净利润同比增长35%，股份回购彰显信心25H1Profit+35%YoY &Share repurchase demonstrates confidence 最新动态 ➢2025H1归母净利润同比增长35%。2025H1，集团的收入约810.39亿元，同比上升约10.1%，主要是由于25H1铝合金产品及氧化铝产品销售价格同比均上涨，同时销售数量亦有所增加所致；25H1,公司股东应占净利润约123.61亿元，同比增加约35.0%，主要是由于集团铝合金产品及氧化铝产品销售价格均同比上涨，销售数量亦有所增加。 ➢通过合资公司的运营实现产业链前端资源有效配置。集团通过合资公司的运营实现产业链前端资源有效配置，为集团铝土矿采购的价格稳定性及成本优势提供保障。同时在几内亚、印尼及澳大利亚拥有长期稳定的铝土矿供应渠道。25H1，集团生产耗用的铝土矿约75.3%来自几内亚，约8.6%来自印尼，约16.0%来自澳大利亚。 ➢持续提升生产耗能中的清洁能源占比。集团进一步利用水电、光伏发电等清洁能源，努力构建稳定高效、绿色低碳的能源供应新体系。截至25H1，集团已于云南省开发建设了约2吉瓦的集中式光伏电站。 ➢股份回购彰显信心。公司以总代价约26亿港元（不含佣金及其他开支）购回合共1.87亿股股份。购回的股份其后已被注销。公司进行股份回购是因为董事会认为公司的股价偏离公司的价值。 动向解读 ➢产能“天花板”下供应愈发收紧是当前铝价运行的核心逻辑。在美元指数下行、供应偏紧及需求持续增加的支撑下，全球电解铝价格重心上移。根据安泰科数据显示，25H1，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三月期铝平均价约2546美元╱吨（不含税），同比上涨约6.0%。上海期货交易所（SHFE）三月期铝的平均价约20226元╱吨（含增值税），同比上涨约1.9%。产能“天花板”下供应愈发收紧是当前铝价运行的核心逻辑，故电解铝将持续保持易涨难大跌的特征。但铝价过高，将抑制需求，进而有可能反向抑制价格。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为233.87亿元、248.62亿元、264.75亿元。结合可比公司估值，给予公司2026年10.3倍PE，按照港元兑人民币0.91汇率计算，对应目标价为29.54港币，首次覆盖给予“收集”评级。 风险提示 产品价格波动的风险、环保与合规的风险、外汇风险、产能政策限制的风险。 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 What’s New ➢The net profit increased by 35%YoYin 2025H1.In2025H1, the group's revenue was approximatelyRMB 81.039bn(+10.1%YoY), mainly due to the increase in sales prices of 25H1aluminum alloy productsand alumina products, as well as an increase in sales volume;In25H1, the net profit is approximately12.361bnyuan(+35.0%YoY), mainly due to the increase in sales prices and quantity of the group'saluminum alloy and alumina products. ➢Realize effective allocation of front-end resources in the industrial chain through the operation ofjoint ventures.The group achieves effective allocation of front-end resources in the industrial chainthrough the operation of joint ventures, providing guarantees for the price stability and cost advantagesof the group's bauxite procurement. We also have long-term stable bauxite supply channels in Guinea,Indonesia, and Australia.In25H1, about 75.3% of the bauxite consumed in the group's production comesfrom Guinea, about 8.6% from Indonesia, and about 16.0% from Australia. ➢Continuously increase the proportion of clean energy in production energy consumption.Thegroup further utilizes clean energy such as hydropower and photovoltaic power generation, and strivesto build a stable, efficient, green, and low-carbon energy supply system.In25H1, the groupdevelopedand constructed approximately 2 GW of centralized photovoltaic power stations in Yunnan Province. ➢Share repurchases demonstrate confidence.The company purchased a total of 187mnshares for atotal consideration of approximately HKD 2.6bn(excluding commissions and other expenses). Therepurchased shares were subsequently cancelled. The company conducts a share repurchase becausethe board of directors believes that the company's stock price deviates from its value. What’s Different ➢The tightening of supply under the "ceiling" of production capacity is the core logic of the currentaluminum price operation.Supported by the downward trend of the US dollar index, tight supply, andcontinued increase in demand, the global center of gravity for electrolytic aluminum prices has shiftedupward. According to data from Antaike, the average price of three-month aluminum on the London MetalExchange (LME) is approximately $2546 per ton (excluding taxes)(+6.0%YoY). The average price ofthree-month aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is about 20226 yuan/ton (includingvalue-added tax), an increase of about 1.9%YoY. The tightening of supply under the "ceiling" ofproduction capacity is the core logic of the current operation of aluminum prices, so electrolytic aluminumwill continue to maintain the characteristic of easy rise but difficult fall. However, if the price of aluminumis too high, it will suppress demand, which may in turn suppress prices. Action ➢Profit forecast.Weestimate the net profitfor 2025-2027 at 23.387bnyuan, 24.862bn yuan, and26.475bnyuan, respectively. Based on the valuation differences between comparable companies, thecompany will be given PE rating of10.3xforFY26, calculated at the exchange rate of HKD/RMB 0.91,corresponding toTPof HKD 29.54.We initiate withan“Accumulate" rating. Risks The risks of product price fluctuations, environmental and compliance risks, foreign exchange risks, andcapacity policy restrictions. 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，本科毕业于北京航空航天大学，硕士毕业于香港大学金融学专业，主要覆盖化工和新材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过500篇，主要覆盖行业包括化肥、农药、气体、炸药、氟化工、分子筛、电解液和合成生物学等行业。覆盖的公司包括：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、中国联塑、浦林成山、米高集团、中国石油化学、中国旭阳集团、彩客新能源、天德化工、理文化工等。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 01353 3537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1)