风险：理解和管理投资中不可避免的一部分

Risk:Understanding andManaging an Inevitable Partof Investing Identifying the various types of risk investorsface can help you think strategically abouthow to manage risk in a way that aligns withyour goals and objectives. Risk is a fact of life for all investors. This is true whether you invest purely in shorter-term,ultra-conservative government bonds or have exposure to more volatile asset classes such asemerging market or micro-cap stocks. Understandably, the word “risk” evokes strong emotions for most investors, leading many tobelieve that risk is something to be avoided altogether. But the truth is that exposure to risk isinevitable for investors—and essential for generating long-term returns. When it comes to managing risk, investors should focus on optimizing their risk exposure inlight of their return expectations. Once investors have determined the level of return theyneed to achieve their goals, investors should look to generate those returns through an assetallocation strategy that minimizes risk. The first step in thinking strategically about risk is understanding the essence of whatinvestment risk is and the various forms of risk that investors face. Defining Risk risk through questions like “What are the chances that Iwon’t achieve my long-term financial goals?” or “How muchof my wealth is at stake in the event of a large pullback in themarket or, worse, a recession?” or “Would I be able to sleepat night if my portfolio suddenly lost 20% of its value?” Defining Risk If you ask 10 investors to define risk, you’re likely to get10 different answers. At a high level, however, there areessentially two primary ways to look at risk: from theperspective of an investment professional and from theperspective of an investor. EXHIBIT 1 Annualized Returns vs. Risk, Investment professionals tend to think about risk inits mathematical form: measuring the variability of aninvestment’s return. An investment or a portfolio thatgenerates returns of +25% in Year 1, -18% in Year 2, and+7% in Year 3 would be viewed as much riskier than aninvestment that generates returns of +3% in Year 1, -2%in Year 2, and +1% in Year 3. Investment professionalsuse measures such as standard deviation to determinethe amount of variability in an investment’s return andSharpe Ratio to compare an investment’s return premiumper unit of risk. Investors generally must assume a greater level of risk to achievegreater return potential. This is demonstrated when looking at theannualized returns and the risk (as measured by standard deviation)for stocks, bonds, and U.S. Treasury bills. (See benchmark definitionsand disclosures on the back page.) Individual investors, however, tend to think about risk inmore tangible and emotional terms. They often articulate EXHIBIT 2 Stocks vs. Bonds: Counterbalancing Risk Bonds often become more attractive to investors—thus boosting prices—when the stock market is more volatile. This typically low or negativecorrelation relationship inverse relationship between fixed-income and equity markets can be a useful tool for counterbalancing risk in a portfolio. Defining Risk(continued) Both approaches—investment professionals’ andinvestors’—are equally valid and are built on thefundamental truth that risk is an inevitable part ofinvesting, one that needs to be fully understood andmanaged strategically. •Headline risk: As with earnings reports, when negativenews breaks about a company, these headlines can quicklycause the stock price to fall. In highly regulated industriessuch as biotech or energy, news of a failed clinical trial ornew regulations for offshore drilling, for example, couldcause the price to fall. In any industry, headlines about ascandal involving company management or the loss of akey customer would likely send the stock price lower. Identifying Types of Investment RiskAcross a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash, and alternative investments, there are many different types ofrisk that could affect a portfolio’s performance. These riskscan be grouped into two main categories: company risk andmarket risk. •Competitive risk: Sometimes the negative news thatcauses a company’s stock price to dip doesn’t have to dowith the company itself, but with one of its competitors.For example, a European technology company’sannouncement that it is acquiring a company thatallows it to gain a foothold in Asian markets could havea negative impact on the stock prices of competitorsthat are already operating in Asia. EXHIBIT 3 •Demographic or customer risk: Trends related to whatcustomers want from products or services, as well asdemographic trends, can be a major influence on acompany’s stock price over the long term. •Credit risk: With bonds, another company-specific risk(or government-specific risk, depending on the type ofbond) that investors face is credit risk. This involves therisk that the issuer’s financial condition may deteriorateto the point that the issuer won’t be able t