全球展望：第四季度更新

GlobalOutlookQ4 update September 2025 BlackRockInvestmentInstitute CAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE.FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, AUSTRIA, GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY, LIECHTENSTEIN,IRELAND, SPAIN, PORTUGUAL, BELGIUM, UK, LUXEMBOURG, SWITZERLAND, NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, FINLAND, SWEDEN, DENMARK, ISRAEL, SOUTHAFRICA, HONG KONG,SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. Staying pro-risk through April’s volatility worked wellEquities across the world rebounded from April’s tariff-driven plunge. We argued immutable economic laws would rein in a maximal stance on tariffs and policy, paving the way for a sharp rebound. Pressure builds on long-term bonds across developed marketsLong-term government bond yields are under renewed pressure as fiscal concernshave become a bigger market driver. Yields in Japan, France and the UK have surged tomulti-decade highs. Bonds are responding unusually to the Federal Reserve’s cutsThe U.S. yield curve has steepened even as the Fed cuts interest rates. We think market attention is shifting from policy-driven uncertainty to the tension between fighting inflation and containing government debt. 2025Outlookthemes Finding anchors inmega forces3. Investing in the hereand now Taking risk with nomacro anchor 2. 1. Immutable economic laws limit howfast global trade and capital marketscan evolve, providing more certaintyabout the near-term macro outlookthan the long term. That keeps us prorisk and overweight U.S. equities. We believe this environment oftransformation is better than theprior decade for achieving above-benchmark returns, or alpha. Yetthe volatile macro environmentinjects risk into portfolios thatneeds to be actively managed orneutralized. Even with the loss of long-termmacro anchors, we believe megaforces are durable return drivers. Yetmega forces don’t map into broadreturn drivers, and we get granular totrack their evolution across andwithin asset classes. We like the AItheme. The AI mega force is offsetting a consumer spending slowdownResilient investment from companies into artificial intelligence (AI)-related infrastructure is propping up U.S. activity. That underlines how mega forces are the new anchor for today’s economy–and how they’re driving returns now. Goods prices are rising again in the wake of U.S.tariffsThe drop in overall inflation masks a sharp rebound in goods inflation, where prices had been falling after spiking during the pandemic. We see the impact of tariffs starting to feed through in highly imported goods like appliances. Unpacking the U.S. inflation puzzleServices inflation slowed early this year but has firmed up in recent months. We’re watching to see if weaker economic activity brings a sustained drop in services inflation or if it will stay sticky. Mapping out Fed policy outcomes and market implications For illustrative purposes only. The opinions expressed are as of September 2025 and are subject to change at any time due tochanges in market or economic conditions. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific timeand is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, September 2025.This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding anyfunds, strategy or security in particular. Markets have swung back to expecting more Fed rate cutsAfter barely pricing in one quarter-point cut through to the end of 2026, markets now see the Fed cutting rates to around 3% by next December. Tech earnings underpin U.S. equity returns so far this yearAI-linked sectors and companies have delivered on earnings, driving their returns year to date. Returnsbeyond the U.S. have mostly been driven by rising valuations. Wethink earnings, not valuations, will drive equities higherTraditional measures show U.S. equity valuations are above average. Where they settle will depend on how the economic transformation underway plays out. We believe AI-led productivity gains could boost earnings growth. The case for a scenario-based approach We see multiple, plausible long-term outcomesfrom this economic tug of war. We don’t think these outcomes aresufficiently captured by a single distribution, so we use scenarios to better inform our strategic views. Greater potential alpha on offer The precise effect of tariffs on earnings will vary between companies and regions,and that could boostdispersionacross stocks. We think this is one example of how investment skill may be better rewarded today. A world financed by private marketsWe see a bigger role for private markets in all three scenariosas more companies rely on private markets for their financing needs. Smaller companies are increasingly crowded out of public credit marketsas deal sizes rise. We see future portfolios b