黄金市场评论：坚持、扭转还是翻倍？

Highlights New highs…but isthere moreuplift? Septemberreview RecordmonthlyETF inflowstook gold to its39thnewhigh for the year, finishingthe monthat US$3,825/oz(+12%). Y-t-d gold is up 47%, marking the highestreturn in a calendar year since 1979(Table 1, p2). Continued political tension, USdollar weakness and optionsmarket activity drove gold to its39thall-time high in 2025 Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggestspoliticaltension,strongoptions market activity,and currency weakness played a key role in gold’sperformance last month(Chart1).The only drag came fromsome rebalancingand profit-taking–captured in a gold price lag in the modelandreflected in theintradaypricedip on 30 September, which was quickly bought. Looking forward Equities on edge in October onbroadeningexcesses. Gold likely toremain a good hedge despite itsstellar run up. Gold ETF flowsrecorded their strongest month on record.Net inflows ofUS$17.3bn (146t)weredominated by North America (US$10.6bn) and Europe(US$4.4bn);Asiajoinedthe rally(US$2.1bn)and other regionsreportedmodestinflows. COMEX managed money net longsparticipated in gold’supward priceaction,addingUS$9bn (+33t). Key drivers of gold’s return by month Thelikelythreat to equities isacute, given lofty valuations,goldilocks earnings projections, high market concentration,extended positioning,and technical redflags.1 Equities onedge, again •October isknown for large equity sell offs, andrisksare riding quite high •Gold is generally a good hedge, butthere may beconcerns about its ability to respondgiven howstretched it looks•In addition,a very oversold US dollarcontinues topose a threat to gold, should a squeeze materialise•However, our analysis suggests thatthese concernsare not warranted andthat, absent a liquiditycrunch,gold’shedging credentialsremain intact. Gold is agreat long-run diversifier and a good short-runhedge against equity drawdowns.But because gold is not acontractual hedge,2the good performance during equitycorrections isn’t guaranteed. What does gold haveleft in the tank? There is perhaps a concern that gold–and in the short runthis means gold investors–might not respond so readily toan equity lurch, primarily because it looks overbought. And there is probablysomemerit to this.Chart2shows thatfrom a tactical perspective gold might struggle to findmarginal investment buyersin this scenario, even as long-run strategic positioning remains light (Chart3). September is,on average,the worst calendar month for USstocks and October is known for big corrections, making thisa generally nervous time for equity investors. An additionalconcern perhaps is that other factors mightconspire against gold’s performance: oversold rates ordollar, over-egged fears,and so on. We lookedat a set of these drivers during historical equitydrawdowns, addressing questions such as: how does goldfare unconditionally?(Chart4);andwhat ifgold hasalreadyperformed really well (vs 200dma), is showing extendedpositioning,or if the dollar is cheap or oversold at the start ofthe equity sell off? Do credit spreads need to blow out forgold to do well?Table2,p4shows these factors grouped byinitial conditions and contemporaneous changes. So, where is the dollar?Well,the bad news is that it looksalmost as tactically oversold as gold is overbought; ithasbeen dragging anchor for some time(Chart6),which isunsurprising giventheconsistentdollar/goldlong-runnegative correlation. The good news is that duringtwo-thirdsof the equity selloffs the dollar hasfallen andhas notbeenmateriallyinfluenced by its own initial conditions. To boot, the dollarhas been oversold for quite some time andthere isnoguaranteethata bounce will materialise just becauseequities drop. What we found was that initial conditions are not greatarbiters of gold’s performance during these sell offs.Theonly factor that really seems to matter is where the US dollargoes (Chart5), and to a lesser extent where it sits invaluation terms prior to the sell off. In summary Looking outside these factors, central banks have shown apropensity to buy dips over the last three years. And so, itseems,have other investors. A mini-intraday gold selloff on30 September quickly reversed into the close. So even atthese levels, there appear to be investors waiting in thewings. And there are plenty of reasons for investors to belooking at gold. Among theseare: •US government frictions, including the shutdown inearly October•Trade tensions not abating•Flailing employment as inflation fears linger•Dollar-hedging applying continuous pressure onone of gold’s key drivers. While our analysis is only indicative, it leaves ussomewhatconfident that gold will hold its ground and perhaps seefurther uplift should equities experience a correction, giventhe plethora of supportive factors elsewhere. Perhaps only amajor liquidity squeeze could upend both gold and equities,but there are noclear signs of fractures in credit or bankingsectors…yet. The trajectory