加强阿尔及利亚货币政策传导

Enhancing MonetaryPolicy Transmission inAlgeria Gian Plebani and William Gbohoui SIP/2025/131 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onAugust 26, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No25/271. 2025OCT IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Enhancing Monetary Policy Transmission in AlgeriaPrepared by Gian Plebani and William Gbohoui* Authorized for distribution by Charalambos TsangaridesOctober2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onAugust 26, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/271 ABSTRACT:Algeria is actively pursuing reforms to modernize its monetary policy framework, with a focus onenhancing the role of interest rates in achieving price stability. The new monetary and banking law provides thenecessary operational and organization tools while the authorities are improving the capacity inmacroeconomic forecasting. This paper analyses the monetary policy transmission in Algeria. The resultssuggest that the interest rate channel is relatively weak as the BA focuses on liquidity operations. A focus oninterest rate tools, financial sector reform and central bank independence would help to improve monetarypolicy transmission in Algeria. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Gbohoui, William & Plebani, Gian Arard, 2025, “Enhancing Monetary PolicyTransmission in Algeria”, Selected Issue Paper, International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Enhancing Monetary PolicyTransmission Algeria Prepared by Gian Plebani and William Gbohoui1 ENHANCING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION INALGERIA1 Algeria is actively pursuing reforms to modernize its monetary policy framework, with a focus onenhancing the role of interest rates in achieving price stability. The new monetary and banking law(MBL) provides the necessary operational and organization tools while the authorities are improvingthe capacity in macroeconomic forecasting. This paper analyses the monetary policy transmission inAlgeria. The results suggest that the interest rate channel is relatively weak as the BA focuses onliquidity operations. A focus on interest rate tools, financial sector reform and central bankindependence would help to improve monetary policy transmission in Algeria. Section A describes themonetary policy framework and the medium-term macroeconomic environment in Algeria. Section Bcontains empirical analysis and the results. Section C describes the current structural impediments to amore effective monetary policy transmission and section D concludes with policy recommendations toenhance the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission. A.Algeria’s Monetary Policy Framework Macroeconomic Background 1.Hydrocarbon exports have been the main determinant of bank liquidity in Algeriasince the 2000s.The period between 2007 to 2015 was characterized by high hydrocarbon pricesand export revenues, which translated into large accumulation of net foreign assets and abundantliquidity in the banking system (Figure 1). Therefore, until 2015, the Bank of Algeria (BA) waspredominantly concerned with absorbing excess liquidity in the financial system. It kept reserverequirements at high levels (Figure 2 panel 1) and absorbed additional liquidity in bilateraloperations with the banks. Furthermore, during times of high hydrocarbon revenues, fiscal savingswere accumulated in the FRR (“Fonds de regulation des recettes”).2 2.The collapse of oil prices in 2015 brought about a change in Algerian monetary policy.In 2015, the collapse of oil prices led to lower deposit growth and steady decline in net foreignassets up until 2021 (Figure 2 panel 2). As a result, the system-wide bank liquidity declined,triggering a change in the BA’s monetary policy regime. In 2016, banks started to use refinancingoperations, the BA lowered the reserve requirement ratio significantly (Figure 2 panel 1) and startedto publish the “taux directeur”, the reference policy rate in 2017 (Figure 4 panel 1). In this newenvironment, the BA became more active in managing liquidity in the banking system. It continuedto absorb liquidity bilaterally when export revenues rose, as was the case over the last three years onthe back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and actively injects liquidity in open market refinancing operations when necessary. The BA injected liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic and mostrecently, on the back of strong demand for government credit and falling oil prices (Figure 1). 3.Large government financing needs dominate the liquidity demand side.Credit to thegovernment as a share of total credit has been on the rise since 2015 and stood at 53 percent in2024 (Figure 3).