编制财政风险声明：斯里兰卡

SRI LANKA Preparing a Fiscal Risk Statement October2025 Prepared ByGuohua Huang, Matt Crooke, Sebastian Essl, Marie-H. Le Manchec, Raju Sharan MEMBERSFiscal Affairs Department PARTNERSGovernment of Japan High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Report Fiscal Affairs Department Preparing a Fiscal Risk Statement Prepared by Guohua Huang, Matt Crooke, Sebastian Essl, Marie-H. Le Manchec, Raju Sharan TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of theassistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided technical assistance to Sri Lanka toprepare a Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) as part of its broader public financial management reforms. Inresponse to the recent fiscal crisis, the authorities have implemented reforms to mitigate fiscal risks.While fiscal risk situation has improved,fiscal risks in areas such as macroeconomic shocks, state-ownedenterprises, guarantees, public-private partnerships, financial sector, and natural disasters remainsubstantial. Recommendations focused on establishing clear roles and responsibilities, enhancing dataquality and analysis, planning clear public communication to ensure timely preparing the 2025 FRS andimproving it over time. Keywords: Fiscal Risk Statement, data availability, communication, reform strategy The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Background At the request of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) of Sri Lanka, a team from the IMF’s Fiscal AffairsDepartment (FAD) in collaboration with World Bank staff visited Colombo during the period January 15–28, 2025 to conduct a capacity development mission on preparing a fiscal risk statement. The team wasled by Mr. Guohua Huang (Senior Economist of FAD) and comprised Mr. Raju Sharen (IMF ResidentPFM Advisor at Colombo), Ms. Marie-Hélène Le Manchec, and Mr. Matt Crooke (both IMF Experts), andMr. Sebastian Michael Essl (Senior Economist of the World Bank). Ms. Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael,IMF’s Resident Representative in Sri Lanka, participated in the closing meeting. Summary of Findings Sri Lanka has faced significant fiscal challenges in recent years, exacerbated by the realization of fiscalrisks. In response, the authorities have implemented reforms to mitigate these risks. These reformsinclude the introduction of cost-recovery pricing for fuel and electricity, a reduction in the ceiling on thestock of guarantees, and the enactment of the Public Financial Management Act (PFMA) and the PublicDebt Management Act (PDMA), both of which incorporate robust provisions for fiscal risk management.While fiscal risk situation has improved, it appears that fiscal risks remain substantial in macroeconomicshocks, public debt, state-owned enterprises, guarantees and on-lending, public-private partnerships,financial sector, and natural disasters. The Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) aims to publish its first Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) by June 2025,as mandated by the PFMA. This marks a significant step towards enhancing fiscal transparency andaccountability. However, several challenges exist in preparing the FRS. Data availability and quality are relatively limited,and the depth of analysis conducted for different types of fiscal risks varies. Furthermore, fiscal riskinformation is scattered across ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs), and a systematicinformation exchange mechanism has not been established. There is also a lack of clarity regarding rolesand responsibilities among MDAs for preparing the FRS. Summary of Recommendations Considering the constraints of data availability, staff capacity, and a tight timeline, the preparation of thefirst FRS needs to balance credibility and feasibility. While the macroeconomic risks, public debt, SOEs,natural disasters, financial sector, guarantees and on-lending, and PPPs should be covered due to theirsignificance, the depth of analysis may vary depending on data availability and analytical capacity. Forthose sources of risks, if data are not available in the near term, a qualitative description of the risks canbe prepared for the first FRS. The FRS should be focused and closely coordinated with other publications. It should convey keystrategic points and quantify risks wherever possible to support informed decision-making andprioritization. It should clearly communicate risk management efforts, specifying actions taken to mitigate and man