新的财政叙事

A New Fiscal Narrative Hightariffrevenues and the start of a meaningful Fed easingcycle, alongside a somewhat balanced economy, havematerially improved the fiscal outlook. We remain of the viewthat markets have yet to fully reflect this fiscalshiftandmaintain our expectation for 30y yields to decline to 4.5%. Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US Andres Mok, CFA+1 212 526 8690andres.mok@barclays.comBCI, US Key Takeaways Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, US Resilience of the US long end:Despite widespread worries following the passage of the OneBig Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the US Treasury market has been notably resilient (Figure 1). Inmid-May, we argued that investor pessimism about the long end was overstated. Since then, 30yTreasury yields have declined meaningfully, even as yields have risen elsewhere. We believemarkets have yet to internalize the fiscal developments and expect 30y yields to decline further,to 4.5%. Demi Hu, CFA+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.comBCI, US Improved debt trajectory:A combination of highertariffrevenues and lower issuance-weighted Treasury yields has materially improved the debt outlook. Current fiscal and monetarypolicy outlooks suggest budget deficits are likely to dip to 5.5-6.0% of GDP, while many hadexpected a rise to 7-8%. The 10y forward debt/GDP ratio is close to 116%, compared with the130% that was looking likely earlier this year. This is roughly in line with the CBO's January 2025baseline, which assumed the expiration of all Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax cuts. Trade policy:Trade policy is exerting a significant influence on the fiscal profile. Customs dutieshave surged to $30bn/month and are poised to rise further as theeffectivetariffrate climbsfrom the current 11%. This could generate up to $300bn in additional annual tax receipts. Evenwith the OBBBA in place and before accounting for the year-to-date decline in intermediateyields, the 10y forward debt/GDP ratio would be closer to 123%, versus 130% if only TCJA cutswere extended. Interest rate dynamics:Interest rates are playing a pivotal role in shaping the debt trajectory.T-bill yields, which account for 20-25% of outstanding debt, are priced to decline to about 3%within a year, versus prior expectations that they would stabilize at 4%. Issuance-weightedaverage yields on notes and bonds have declined from 4.5% to 3.8%, despite the economylargely expected to end up in a similar place. These revised assumptions further support a 10yforward debt/GDP ratio of 116%. Issuance outlook:We expect the Treasury to continue to increase the proportion of T-bills in itsissuance mix, while keeping sizes of notes/bonds unchanged, even next year. If coupon auction Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 15.Completed: 22-Sep-25, 16:59 GMTReleased: 22-Sep-25, 17:03 GMTRestricted - External sizes remain unchanged through 2027, the T-bill share could still reach roughly 24%, below thepre-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) average of 25%. The Treasury may want to make some modestadjustments in 2027 if demand for T-bills declines, but this would be only up to the intermediatesector. Tariffrevenues and legal risks:Markets appear to be hair-cuttingtariffrevenues, as evidencedby still-tight swap spreads. Even if the Supreme Court rules against the administration on its useof the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to imposetariffs,alternative legalframeworks could sustain its trade policy stance, in our view (seeTariffson trial). We believe therevenue stream is durable. Another potential risk is a new reconciliation bill that includes fiscalexpansion, though momentum behind such legislation appears limited. Term premium and non-fiscal factors:Some argue that elevated term premia reflect non-fiscal risks such as policy uncertainty, threats to Fed independence, or diversification away fromUSD assets. However, this view is inconsistent with market- and flow-based indicators: impliedrate volatility remains close to historical lows, 5y5y CPI swaps show little worry about the Fed'sinflation credibility, and foreign and domestic private inflows into Treasuries have remainedrobust. FIGURE 1. 30y USTs have been the best performer across major bond markets year to date Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research What is the latest fiscal outlook? A lot has happened on the fiscal front this year, including the passage of the OBBBA, impositionoftariffs,rapidshiftsin the economy and volatility in interest rates.