选举前的捷克

Czech Republic Czechia before the Election Stability or Change of Course? Foreign Policy Orientation underScrutiny Dr. Marco Arndt, Martina Beránková On 3–4 October 2025, Czechia will elect a new Chamber of Deputies. The politicallandscapeis polarized, thesecurity and budgetary challenges are considerable,and populist as well asextremist forces are gaining influence. Yet the country nowmore than ever needsresponsibility and a clear anchoring in Europe. Party Landscape: Irreconcilable Camps According to recent polls, the strongest force is ANO (Patriots for Europe in the EuropeanParliament) led by Andrej Babišwith 31.2%.However, Babišis under pressure due to thepossible illegal use of EU subsidies for his company. The main hearing in this matter will takeplace after the elections. A conviction is possible. This is one of the reasons why he isrejected as prime ministerby the democratic parties of the center. In addition, his populistrhetoric and Eurosceptic tones unsettle many who value the pro-European and pro-Atlanticcontinuity of the country's foreign policy. The governing SPOLU coalition, consisting of ODS (European Conservatives and Reformists),TOP 09 and KDU-ČSL (both European People’s Party), is led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala andstands for a liberal-conservative, pro-European course. In the polls, the alliance stands at20.9%. Together with their centrist-liberal partner STAN (EPP), led by Interior Minister VítRakušan, they categorically reject cooperation with Babiš. STAN currently polls at 10.1%.Thus, the governing parties are roughly tied with ANO.Until a year ago, the government blocalso included the Pirates (Greens/European Free Alliance), led by former Prague mayorZdeněk Hřib. Polling at 8.9%, they still oppose Babišand call for renewed constructivecooperation with SPOLU and STAN. On the fringes, the far-right SPD (12.8%, Europe of Sovereign Nations) and the far-left Stačilo!–“Enough!” (6.5%, non-attached) act aggressively against the EU and NATO. The new partyMotoristé sobě(“Motorists for Themselves”, 5.1%, Patriots for Europe) promotes nationalsovereignty and populist promises. Its rhetoric is polarizing and its program-e.g. opposingthe Green Deal and the ban on combustion engines-is widely seen as unrealistic. All threefringe parties could imagine forming a government with ANO. Campaign Issues: Prosperity and Security The parties’ answers to economic concerns-inflation, energy costs, housing-differfundamentally. ANO promises tax cuts combined with massive subsidies, while SPOLUadvocates fiscal responsibility and sustainable budgeting. Foreign policy is also at stake: if ANO were to govern with extremist partners, NATOcommitments could be questioned, Czech support for Ukraine could end, and relations with the EU would deteriorate. This would mark a sharp break with the values-based foreignpolicy of the SPOLU–STAN government, which has demonstrated responsibility andleadership, e.g. through the Czech Munitions Initiative (an international effort to deliverover800,000 artillery shells to Ukraine) and the successful integration of more than 380,000Ukrainian refugees-the highest per capita in the EU. Fears of Electoral Fraud and Disinformation Constitutional complaints were filed against the candidate lists of Stačilo! and SPD, alleginghidden coalitions trying tocircumvent stricter thresholds for electoral alliances. TheConstitutional Court dismissed the cases-likely also to avoid fueling fraud narratives. Suchfears are already amplified in social media by disinformation campaigns aiming todelegitimize elections and institutions. They warn of a “Romanian scenario,” claiming thecourts are being “misused.” According to recent polls, nearly half of the population believeselectoral fraud is possible. Conclusion: No Easy Path to Government Formation A fragmented parliament with up to seven parties will make government formationextremely difficult and compromise-laden.An ANO coalition with extremists or a minoritygovernment relying on them would have the most damaging foreign policy consequences.Democratic parties might therefore come under pressure to consider cooperation with ANOmerely to avoid this scenario-eventhough both sides currently rule it out. A caretaker orexpert government could become a temporary solution. What is at stake is whether Czechia can remain a constructive and reliable partner in the EUand NATO-and whether citizens’ trust in democratic institutions will be strengthened ratherthan further eroded. President Petr Pavel has already signaled that he intends to play an active role ingovernment formation, particularly if anti-EU or anti-NATO forces gain influence. His positionis clear: Czechia belongs to the Western community of values-even after theelection. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Dr. Marco ArndtLeiter des Auslandsbüros Tschechienwww.kas.de/cesko marco.arndt@kas.de The text of this publication is published under aCreative Commons license: “Creative Common