全球贸易前景：商界领袖的观点

Introduction. About ACCA. 2025 has been a monumental year for international trade and theglobal economy, with the US raising its import tariffs to their highestlevel since the 1930s. The key focus of this publication is to provideearly insights from business leaders and finance professionals onhow they view the prospects for global trade and are currentlygrappling with the major disruptions. We hope it will help you andyour stakeholders understand and navigate the many risks andopportunities in the global economy over coming quarters and years. We are ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants),a globally recognised professional accountancy body providingqualifications and advancing standards in accountancy worldwide. Founded in 1904 to widen access to the accountancy profession,we’ve long championed inclusion and today proudly support a diversecommunity of over252,500members and526,000future membersin180countries. Our forward-looking qualifications, continuous learning and insightsare respected and valued by employers in every sector. They equipindividualswith the business and finance expertise and ethicaljudgment to create, protect, and report the sustainable value deliveredby organisations and economies. In Section 1, we provide an overview of the changes in the global trading system since theGlobal Financial Crisis, with a particular focus on the major changes in US trade policy in2025, and discuss the impacts of the latter on the global economy. Guidedby our purpose and values,our vision is to developtheaccountancy profession the world needs.Partnering withpolicymakers,standard setters,the donor community,educatorsand other accountancy bodies, we’re strengthening and building aprofession that drives a sustainable future for all. In Section 2, we discuss the results of our survey of accountants and business leaders onthe ‘Future of Global Trade’. In Section 3, we include detailed interviews with business leaders, finance professionalsand policy experts from different parts of the world, in which they discuss their views onthe prospects for global trade, and how their organisations (or organisations in their region)are currently being impacted by the disruptions, and what organisations and policymakerscan do to mitigate the impacts. Find out more ataccaglobal.com Contents. References28 Executive summary. We surveyed accountants and business leaders fromacross the globe on the ‘Future of Global Trade’.Unsurprisingly, there was significant concern aboutcurrent developments, with 85% of respondentsconcerned about the impacts of tariffs and changesin global trade on their organisation (see Figure 2.1).But businesses generally appear relatively sanguineabout the future. Among our survey respondents,28% expect their organisations to increase theiramount of global trade ‘significantly’ in the nextthree to five years, and the same proportion expectthis trade to ‘increase somewhat’, while 18% and5% respectively expect it to decrease ‘somewhat’and ‘significantly’. C-suite executives were evenmore positive about the future, with 38% and 29%of respondents respectively expecting their firms’amount of global trade to increase ‘significantly’ and‘somewhat’ (see Figure 2.2). 2025 has witnessed monumental changes in UStrade policy, with the country raising its import tariffsto their highest level since the 1930s. US trade policyuncertainty soared to record levels in April, althoughit has eased somewhat amid the various tariff pausesand the agreement of trade deals with a number ofpartners. Significant uncertainty remains, however,not least regarding the legality of a major plank ofPresident Trump’s tariff policy. The global economy has generally proved moreresilient than expected despite the aggressive tariffhikes, likely reflecting the lack of retaliation from mostcountries, frontloading of exports to the US ahead oftariff increases, and a slower than expected impacton US inflation. That said, the risk remains of someslowing in the global economy over coming quarters,and global growth in 2025 and 2026 is set to bemeaningfully below the average of recent decades.Looking further out, a less open and more fragmentedglobal economy would likely lead to slowerproductivity growth, higher prices, and slower globalgross domestic product (GDP) growth. ‘Geopolitical tensions’, ‘international or civil conflicts/wars’ and ‘protectionist policies in advancedeconomies’ were viewed as the top three risks orbarriers for global trade over the coming years. Firmly A less open and more fragmented global tradingsystem would generally be expected to result inhigher prices for consumers and businesses, and thesurvey results don’t refute this. Businesses suggestthat changes in global trade have already pushedup their costs over recent years, perhaps reflectingsupply chain disruptions after the pandemic andRussia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, around 35% ofrespondents report that their organisations’ costs arel