投资于人：重新审视中东和北非地区为人类发展融资的财政选择（英）2025

Revisiting Fiscal Options to Finance HumanDevelopment in the MENA Region Ugo Gentilini, Beenish Amjad, Evan Blecher, Danielle Elena Bloom, Daniel Coppard, Amr Elshawarby, Katriel Friedman, Alan Fuchs,Marelize Gorgens, Fatine Guedira, Duncan Knox, Diego Lopez, Arbind Modi, Matteo Morgandi, Dominik Naeher, Mahesh Dinkar Nayak, Ceren Ozer,Montserrat Pallares-Miralles, Juul Pinxten, Dominique Claire Rouleau, Elisabeth Sedmik, Ellen Van de Poel, and Andrew Waddington ©2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies inthe information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and otherinformation shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citationof works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by thoseauthors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes aslong as full attribution to this work is given. This report is part of the task “Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a MiddleEast and North Africa in Transition” (P502135) produced by the MENA People team. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Gentilini, Ugo; Amjad, Beenish; Blecher, Evan; Bloom,Danielle Elena; Coppard, Daniel; Elshawarby, Amr; Friedman, Katriel; Fuchs, Alan; Gorgens, Marelize;Guedira, Fatine; Knox, Duncan; Lopez, Diego; Modi, Arbind; Morgandi, Matteo; Naeher, Dominik;Nayak, Mahesh Dinkar; Ozer, Ceren; Pallares-Miralles, Montserrat; Pinxten, Juul; Rouleau, DominiqueClaire; Sedmik, Elisabeth; Van de Poel, Ellen; and Waddington, Andrew (2025) “Investing in People:Revisiting Fiscal Options to Finance Human Development in the MENA Region”. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: Dania Kibbi INVESTING IN PEOPLE Revisiting Fiscal Options to FinanceHuman Development in the MENA Region June 2025 Contents Foreword and Acknowledgements4 1.Introduction6 2.The state of human development spending in MENA2.1Why HD spending matters2.1Novel estimates on HD spending2.2Sectoral spending within human development 3.Expanded revenues3.1The state of MENA’s revenues3.2Health taxes 4.Effectiveandefficientspending4.1Pensions 4.2Food subsidies4.3Debt swaps4.4A system-wide framework for effective spending in health4.5Harnessing technology 5.Enhanced coordination5.1Sovereign wealth funds 5.2Zakat5.3Diaspora bonds5.4Development and humanitarian assistance AnnexesAnnex 1. HD spending in MENA: methodological note Annex 2. Data on HD spending in MENA Figures Figure 1.1A “3-Es” framework offers select options to enhance HD spending in MENA6Figure 2.1MENA’s fiscal policies reduce poverty in most countries, but modestly in someand even augments poverty in others11Figure 2.2The erosion of MENA’s middle class11Figure 2.3Average per capita spending on HD has remained flat12Figure 2.4Government spending on HD is a growing share of a decreasing pie13Figure 2.5Middle-income countries in MENA spend more than global peers,while the opposite holds for high-income contexts in the region13Figure 2.6HD spending per capita increased in presence of economic growth in Morocco,Saudi Arabia and Iran, but followed different approaches to public spending14Figure 2.7HD spending per capita decreased despite economic growth in Bahrain and Egypt,largely due to drop in an overall public spending not balanced by HD allocations14Figure 2.8Egypt’s decline in HD per capita spending was even more severe15Figure 2.10Jordan and Tunisia spent away from HD in times of economic stress15Figure 2.9Economic and public spending contractions led to declines in HD15per capita spending despite its prioritization in Lebanon and Oman15Figure 2.11Average spending in social protection increased, while