扩大规模是如何发生的：社会援助扩张中的融资、政治经济和交付（英）2025

Financing, Political Economy, and Deliveryin Social Assistance Expansion Ugo Gentilini (editor) OUTLINE Ugo Gentilini 10PART 1.Trends, issues, and select choices in financing social assistance 111. HOW SCALE-UP HAPPENS: A TOUR OF THE LANDSCAPEUgo Gentilini and Colin Andrews 332. FINANCING SOCIAL ASSISTANCE: A PRIMERMartin Evans 853. THE STATE OF FINANCING SOCIAL ASSISTANCEIN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES Emil Tesliuc, Claudia Rodriguez Alas, Usama Zafar,and Ana Sofia Martinez Cordova 113PART 2.Thematic deep dives: selected issues 1144. A SNAPSHOT OF EARMARKING ISSUES AND PRACTICESHerwig Immervoll 1305. SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, VAT, AND LESSONSFROM HEALTH FINANCINGCeren Ozer, Danielle Elena Bloom, and Mahvish Shaukat 1546. WORTH PROTECTING: RISK FINANCE TOOLS AND IDEASFOR BETTER SOCIAL ASSISTANCE Zahrah Nesbitt-Ahmed, Daniel J Clarke and Theodore Talbot 1747. SOCIAL ASSISTANCE AND NATURAL RESOURCES:WHAT ROLE FOR SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS? Diego López and Andrew Waddington 189PART 3.Explaining scale-up: fiscal, political economy and deliverylessons from six case studies 2199. POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCEEXTENSION Jayatheerth Seetharaman, Ugo Gentilini and Colin Andrews, withSherine Al Shawarby, Pedro Arruda, Ibrahim Dia, Camilo Gudmalin, Ahsan Rana,and Neo Simutanyi 28210. DELIVERY SYSTEMS READINESS AND THE SCALE-UPOF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE Emma Wadie Hobson, Hrishikesh TMM Iyengar, Giorgia Vallerianiand Mohamed Almenfi ABOUT THE AUTHORS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The report was made possible by thegenerous support ofthe Social Protection Response (SPR) Umbrella Trust Fund(formerly RSR). The team would like to thank wholeheart-edly an array of colleagues. Among them, precious peerreview comments of the initial concept and/or final prod-uct were received from Yoonyoung Cho, Felix Lung, RuslanYemtsov, IffathSharif,Gabriela Inchauste, Lucian BucurPop, MarcTobias Schiffbauer and David Coady, whilestrategic guidance was provided by JameleRigolini, LoliArribas-Banos andMichal Rutkowski. The team is gratefulto staff who in various capacities supported the report’sdata and content development, includingTiago FalcaoSilva,Josefina Posadas,RaquelTsukada, TamiresAmorim,GulNajam Jamy,Zaineb Majoka,Amjad Zafar Khan,RuthRodriguez,Yoonyoung Cho,Nadia Selim,VandrasLilato Nyambe MuketeLuywa,Nahla Zeitoun, Souraya ElAssiouty, ThomasBossuroy, Stephanie Brunelin, DameSeck Thiam, MalikeKendeh and Andrea Martin.HelenaMakarenko was pivotal in the organization of two work-shops inWashington, DC, including theattendance of, inaddition to the report’s authors, YukoOkamura, AlexandreKolev,Alexander Pick,Florentin Kerschbaumer,PamelaDale,DominicRichardson, JuulPinxten, WilliamWiseman,MatteoMorgandi, ChristianEigen-Zucchi,MichaelWeber,Anit Mukherjee,Alberto Musatti, VictorAlejandroCamacho,Maria Belen Fontenez, Nian Sadiq,Alexander Jaeger andValeria Nicole AriasSalvador. The report only reflects thepersonal views of the authors. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:10 KEY MESSAGES Ugo Gentilini Message #1:Are cash transfers sustainable? A fiscalpolicy perspective can shed new light on the financialcosts and benefits of cash transfers Mainstream approaches to “sustainability” of cash transfer program havecentered on core matters of revenues and expenditures. These are keyconsiderations making cash transfers, and social protection more widely,a macrocritical issue. Yet in some ways, this may represent an incompleteapproach to sustainability. In addition to costs, the other part of the equa-tion – the benefits – should also be recognized more fully. Fiscal multipli-ers are a case in point: on overage, research shows that the average multi-plier for every dollar injected as cash transfer generates about $1.3 in localeconomies. Combined with effective taxation systems, such multiplierscould make programs’ sustainability more highly favorable than often per-ceived. Adopting a “fiscal” perspective calls for integrating the costs andbenefit sides of the equation more systematically, robustly and coherentlyin policy and analytics. Message #2:How should fiscal issues be pondered?There is a need for a balanced and cautious approach tointerpreting key choices. The effects and requirements of fiscal revenues and instruments shouldbe carefully pondered. Enhancing fiscal space in low- and middle-incomecountries often features interconnected debates on among others generalrevenues and earmarking, or on discretionary spending and automatic sta-bilizers. The report discusses these threads in multiple chapters in a con-sistent, balanced way to help inform contextual choices. Overall, the ob-servations offered in the analysis tend to suggest not to over-rely on selectinstruments, but to find the right revenue composition for a given stockof implementation capabilities, paying attention to unintended effects andmanaging behavioral responses. Message #3:Should fiscal earmarking be consideredmore widely? Both potential and limitations should beproperly recognized