前瞻性家庭气候脆弱性曲线为减贫政策提供信息

Evie Calcutt, Ruth Hill, and Katja Vinha FORWARD-LOOKING HOUSEHOLDCLIMATE VULNERABILITYCURVES TO INFORM POVERTYREDUCTION POLICY Evie Calcutt, Ruth Hill, and Katja Vinha1 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes,or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other informationshown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authoredby others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the contentof their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as longas full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: © Dusan Stankovic / iStock. OVERVIEW Climate shocks increase poverty and reduce development gains and productiveinvestments, in part because vulnerable households have poor financial resilience,are often not covered by public safety nets, and therefore have little ability tocushion the impacts of shocks. Globally, nearly one in five people (18 percent) areat risk of climate hazards and are likely to experience a severe climate shock intheir lifetime that they will struggle to recover from. Among those at risk, 44 percenthave no access to a bank or mobile money account, and 49 percent neither receivebenefits nor are eligible to receive benefits from social protection schemes (WorldBank Corporate Scorecard, 2024). Improving households’ post-shock access tofinancing—by strengthening public safety nets and encouraging people to increasetheir own financial resources to meet unanticipated expenses (for example, throughsavings and insurance)—is thus an urgent policy priority. Thisnote presents an analytical approach to developing forward-looking2household climate vulnerability curves to understand both the size of the financingproblem and the ways that different policies can address it. The approach isillustrated with an application to drought risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. It providesvaluable inputs for policy makers prioritizing investments in climate adaptationand resilience, can add technical value to key flagships such as Country Climateand Development Reports (CCDRs) and Poverty and Equity Assessments, and cansupport the use of instruments from the World Bank’s Crisis Preparedness andResponse Toolkit. The need for new analytical approaches to quantifying the impact of climate shockson households systematic methodology to assess the impact ofclimate events on household welfare is required,one similar to the long-established risk engineeringmethodologiesthat explain the relationshipbetween climate events (like floods and cyclones)and physical assets (like buildings). Accesstofinancialservicesincreaseshouseholds’ welfare by strengthening financialresilience —and this increase is even larger whenhouseholdsface catastrophic losses(Mahul2024).Financial resilience is the ability to copewithand recover from losses through incomeor transfers. In developing economies, only 55percent of adults are resilient to financial shocks,and women and the poor are especially likely tolack financial resilience (Klapper and Tayag 2022).Households with financial accounts or insuranceare more resilient because they can access liquidityrather than being forced to reduce consumption.Additionally, households covered by public safetynets are more resilient because they can rely ontransfer income when shocks hit. Because no singleinstrument protects against all risks, householdsrequire a package of different financial resourcesor public safety nets based on their risk profiles. The World Bank has developed a new analyticalmethod,the Household