下一代银行业务：美国中型银行的剧本

Financial Services PracticeBanking on the next generation: A playbookfor US midcap banks Midcap banks face challenges including an aging customer base and aheavy reliance on branches, but also opportunities to modernize, attractyounger consumers, and build resilience. by Atanas Stoyanov, Darius Imregun, and Peter Noteboomwith Jeff Brown The turmoilthat hit the US banking industry in early 2023 and resulted in the collapse of severalbanks was a pivotal moment, particularly for midsize institutions. In the span of just four weeksin March 2023, banks beyond the country’s 25 largest experienced more than $220 billion indeposit outflows,1as customers moved funds to larger institutions perceived as more stable.The crisis exposed a vulnerability: Some banks discovered they were susceptible to outflows inconcentrated pockets of clients with larger deposit balances. Since then, a performance gap has emerged. Among midcap banks (with assets of $10 billionto $100 billion), those that rely more on retail deposits have done significantly better than peersreliant on commercial or wholesale funding (Exhibit 1). Retail deposits are typically more granularthan other types of deposits, composed of funds from many individuals. This makes them morestable. Midcap banks with such granular, low-cost retail deposit bases didn’t just weather the2023 crisis more effectively; they also outperformed in 2024. Institutions with above-medianretail deposits as a share of total deposits delivered net interest margins that were 44 basispoints higher, on average, than peers more reliant on commercial or wholesale deposits. Theretail-focused banks also experienced asset growth that was more than twice as fast as thatof their peers. If midcaps with greater dependence on wholesale or commercial funding hadachieved the same performance as peers with more retail-focused deposit bases, they would Exhibit 1Exhibit <1> of 7 Midcap banks with more reliance on retail deposits have outperformedthose with more reliance on commercial or wholesale funding. Key financial metrics of US midcap banks in 2024,%1 McKinsey & Company have generated nearly $10 billion in additional net interest income in 2024, representing anincrease of nearly 20 percent. Why are retail deposits so resilient? One factor is customer inertia: Individuals are typically lesssensitive than businesses to interest rate changes, and they tend to keep their money whereit is parked. Another major driver of this resilience is the strength of consumer relationships.Consumers born before 1965—baby boomers and the Silent Generation—account for the largestshare of consumer deposit balancesin the United States, making them essential to near-termfunding stability (Exhibit 2). Still, their importance will diminish over time, as older consumers’share of deposit balances is expected to decline from 39 percent in 2023 to 20 percent in 2035.At the same time, younger consumers are critical to future growth. According toMcKinseyPanorama, by 2035, millennials and Gen Zers are expected to account for 43 percent of retailbanking revenue, up from 32 percent in 2023. Over this period, Gen Z alone is projected to morethan double its share of consumer deposits, to 16 percent. Banks that effectively engage bothends of this generational spectrum will be best positioned to build a stable, granular deposit basethat supports long-term value creation. Exhibit 2MidCapBankResilienceExhibit 2 of 7 McKinsey & Company For midcap banks, however, winning over consumers is becoming increasingly difficult, as theyare not people’s top choice for a primary financial institution, as we explore in the next section.That’s especially true for younger generations, who perceive less value in midcap banks’offerings. This challenge is not just a consumer banking issue; it is a strategic imperative. Aresilient, scalable retail funding base can serve as a growth engine that enables commercial-banking expansion. With retail and commercial banking becoming more interdependent, theability to fund one with the other is an increasingly important factor in banks’ ability to competeeffectively in the market. Given these challenges, we examined results from the 2024 McKinsey Consumer Financial LifeSurvey of roughly 5,000 individuals2to identify trends shaping midcap banks’ competitiveness.In the next section, we outline five key trends that emerged from the survey, including manychallenges facing midcap banks. Then, we outline steps midcap banks can take to modernizetheir branches, pursue an AI-driven digital transformation, build a digital marketing machine,focus on high-value customer segments, and refine the product portfolio. These steps will helpmidcaps expand their reach beyond older customers, enhancing their value proposition withyounger generations, strengthening their deposit base, and improving performance. Trends affecting midcap banks’ performance with retail customers The survey results showed that midcap banks fac