现场活动报告：未来伊梅尔达——新兴威胁

Tropical Overview for the Atlantic Basin. Note future “Imelda” to the west, with Humbertojust east.Source: NOAA/NHC. Updated September 26, 2025 Caribbean Disturbance – Emerging US Landfall Threat •A tropical disturbance continues to produce heavy rains and gusty winds overHispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands, according to the NationalHurricane Center (NHC).•Over the coming days, this feature will likely intensify as it moves northwestwardover the Bahamas and into a favorable environment for development with warmwaters and reduced wind shear. The NHC is expecting an 80 percent chancethat the feature will develop into Tropical Storm Imelda on Friday or Saturday.•The track forecast remains a challenge, but current model guidance suggests thestorm will move north-northwest parallel to the eastern Florida coastline beforemaking landfall near Georgia or the Carolinas early next week. Note that trackuncertainty remains high due to the undeveloped nature of the feature as well asto possible interactions with Hurricane Humberto. Forecast track confidence should improve once the feature develops a closed circulation and timing ofinteraction with Humberto and another weather system advancing across themainland become clear. •Concerning intensity, future Imelda should begin to encounter dry air and windshear over the longer term as it advances toward the Southeast coast, whichshould limit development. Weather model intensity scenarios indicate thattropical storm intensity is most probable, with a few category-1 scenarios. uncertainty within each model reflecting low forecast confidence.Source:TropicalTidbits.com. Weather Model Intensity Scenarios for Caribbean Disturbance (future Imelda). Noteconsolidated view of tropical storm strength near the time of potential landfall, with a fewoutliers indicating possible category-1 strength.Source: TropicalTidbits.com. Hurricane Humberto •In the central Atlantic, Hurricane Humberto has strengthened to a maximum windspeed of 90 mph with a northwest motion of 5 mph. Hurricane-force winds extendup to 10 miles outward from the center of the storm.•Humberto is expected to curve northward and pass along the western side ofBermuda early/mid next week. Current model guidance suggests a low probability of Humberto making landfall on the US Mainland, although tropicalstorm conditions are very possible for Bermuda next week. •If Humberto is close enough to future Imelda, its circulation could alter the trackof Imelda, causing it to pull to the right, possibly reducing US impacts. Modelguidance suggests that these effects would be limited, but with great uncertaintygiven the timing and interaction of the features involved. Position and Best Track for Hurricane Humberto.Source: NOAA/NHC. Another statement on future “Imelda” will be issued by the CAT Resource Center onMonday. Additional Links of Interest www.nhc.noaa.gov Statements from emergency management and official forecast agencies supersede thisstatement and should be closely followed concerning matters of personal safety.