东帝汶民主共和国：2025年第四条协商新闻稿；员工报告；东帝汶民主共和国执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR FORTHE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OFTIMOR-LESTE Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withthe Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste,the following documents have been released andare included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsSeptember 19, 2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withthe Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onSeptember 19, 2025, following discussions that ended onJuly 2,2025, with the officials ofthe Democratic Republic of Timor-Lesteon economicdevelopments and policies. Based on information available at the time of thesediscussions, the staff report was completed onAugust 25, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank. •AStatement by the Executive Directorforthe Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Timor-Leste FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – September 26, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Timor-Leste.1 Growth is estimated to have risen to 4.1 percent in 2024, supported by fiscal expansion andstrong credit growth. Inflation declined from 8.4 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2024, drivenby moderating global food prices and the rollback of tax hikes, and fell further to -0.2 percenty/y in May 2025. Growth is projected to remain robust at 3.9 percent in 2025, supported by a strong fiscalimpulse and continued rapid credit growth. In 2026, growth is expected to moderate to 3.3percent, as ASEAN accession begins to support growth through stronger FDI inflows and non-oil exports, but being more than offset by the expected drag from fiscal policy. Inflation isexpected to rise modestly in the second half of the year—averaging 0.9 percent in 2025 and1.8 percent in 2026—as global food prices rise. Risks to the outlook are balanced. Executive Board Assessment2 Executive Directors noted that growth is expected to remain robust in 2025 and inflation toremain contained, with balanced risks to the medium-term outlook. However, considering thecessation of oil production in 2025, and the substantial fiscal and external imbalances,Directors underscored the importance of gradual fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancingstructural reforms to avoid depletion of the Petroleum Fund, secure fiscal and externalsustainability, and promote needed economic diversification. They welcomed Timor-Leste’sWTO accession and forthcoming accession to ASEAN, which are expected to boost trade andattract more foreign investment. Directors concurred that improving the composition and quality of public spending, andgradually enhancing revenue mobilization, are needed to support fiscal consolidation efforts.They welcomed recent initiatives to restrain recurrent spending and encouraged further effortsto reduce untargeted transfers and contain the public wage bill, while prioritizing investmentsin human capital and high-quality capital projects. They welcomed plans for theimplementation of VAT by 2027, and encouraged efforts to strengthen tax administration and compliance. While noting prospects offered by the Greater Sunrise gas field, Directors calledfor carefully managing the risks associated with its development. They encouraged the fullimplementation of ongoing reforms to public financial management and procurement toimprove budget discipline and spending efficiency. Directors noted that the financial system remains shallow, despite strong credit growth inrecent years. They welcomed ongoing legal reforms in the financial sector, and called foraccelerating the issuance of land titles and developing a national digital ID to addressstructural impediments to lending and support growth. While systemic risks remain limited,Directors called for close monitoring and supervision of the financial sector given the rapidcredit growth. Addressing AML/CFT framework deficiencies is also important. Directors emphasized that advancing structural reforms is crucial to boost private sectordevelopment, enhance financial inclusion,