受益于光伏玻璃去产能，产品价格触底回升

受益于光伏玻璃去产能，产品价格触底回升 Benefiting from the reduction of capacity& Price of photovoltaic glass rebounded 最新动态 ➢2025H1归母净利润同比下降58.8%。2025H1，集团实现营业收入约109.32亿元，同比下降6.5%，实现归母净利润约7.46亿元，同比下降58.8%。25H1，集团成功实现太阳能玻璃分部的销量增长。25H1，太阳能玻璃产品平均售价同比大幅下跌导致利润率同比下滑，而部分闲置的太阳能玻璃生产设施亦需要作出减值拨备，但集团25H1的综合业绩较24H2有显著改善。 ➢太阳能玻璃产能有所暂停。截至2025年6月30日，集团在产的太阳能玻璃产能总熔量为每日23200吨其中包括于2025年7月暂停运行的两条总日熔量为1800吨的生产线。此外，集团仍保留若干闲置产能可根据市场情况重新启动。同时，印度尼西亚两条新的太阳能玻璃生产线正在兴建中，预计将于2026年第一季度开始商业生产。集团仍在积极评估在策略性地点的进一步扩张机会，并将根据市场动态调整营运能力。 ➢审慎拓展光伏电站业务，灵活应对市场变化。25H1公司并无自主开发的大型太阳能发电场项目并网。截至2025年6月30日，集团太阳能发电场项目的累计核准并网容量为6245兆瓦，其中5841兆瓦为大型地面集中式项目，404兆瓦为供集团自用或售予电的分布式发电项目。就所有而言，容量为4585兆瓦的太阳能发电场项目乃透过信义能源持有；容量为1560兆瓦的太阳能发电场项目乃透过公司若干全资附属公司持有。一个容量为100兆瓦的太阳能发电场项目由集团拥有50%权益的一家实体持有。 动向解读 ➢光伏玻璃价格触底回升。根据百川盈孚，截至2025年9月25日，光伏玻璃镀膜3.2mm全国均价为20元/平方米，较上个月上涨11.11%，较上季度上涨2.56%，较年初上涨2.56%，较去年下跌6.98%；光伏玻璃镀膜2.0mm均价为13元/平方米，较上个月上涨18.18%，较上季度上涨13.04%，较年初上涨8.33%，较去年上涨4%。 ➢政策变动带来不确定性引发中国光伏项目抢装潮。受预期政策变动的推动，25H1中国光伏装机量激增。国家能源局发布的数据显示，25H1全国新增光伏装机容量达212.21吉瓦，同比增长107.1%。对新项目采取市场定价机制增加了收益的不确定性，致使开发商争相在关键截止日前完成项目，分布式项目的节点为2025年4月30日，所有新装机项目的节点为2025年5月31日。这由政策期限引发的抢装潮导致2025年3月及4月光伏装机激增，同时带动了太阳能组件及太阳能玻璃价格的短期上涨。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们维持公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为14.58亿元、20.82亿元、25.53亿元。结合可比公司估值，给予公司2025年25倍PE，按照港元兑人民币0.92汇率计算，对应目标价为4.34港币，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 产能过剩挤压利润的风险、价格波动的风险、国际贸易的风险、技术迭代风险、外汇风险。 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 资料来源：百川盈孚，环球富盛 What’s New ➢The net profit decreased by 58.8% year-on-year in 2025H1.In2025H1, the group achieved a revenue ofapproximately RMB 10.932 billion(YoY-6.5%), and net profit of approximately RMB 746 million(YoY-58.8%).In2025H1, the groupsuccessfully achievedsales growth in its solar glass division.In2025H1, the significantyear-on-year decline in the average selling price of solar glass products has led to adecrease in profit margins,and some idle solar glass production facilities also require impairment provisions. However, theprofitof thegroup in 25H1 has significantly improved compared to 24H2. ➢The production capacity of solar glass has been suspended.As of June 30, 2025, the total daily meltingcapacity of the group's solar glass production capacity is 23200 tons, including two production lines with a totaldaily melting capacity of 1800 tons that were suspended in July 2025. In addition, the group still retains someidle production capacity that can be restarted according to market conditions. Meanwhile, two new solar glassproduction lines are under construction in Indonesia and are expected to begin commercial production in thefirst quarter of 2026. The group is still actively evaluating further expansion opportunities in strategic locationsand will adjust its operational capabilities based on market dynamics. ➢Prudent expansion of photovoltaic power plant business and flexible response to market changes.In25H1, the companydidnot have independently developed large-scale solar power plant projects connected tothe grid. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative approved grid connected capacity of the group's solar power plantprojects is 6245MW, of which 5841 megawatts are large-scale ground centralized projects and 404 megawattsare distributed power generation projects for the group's own use or sale of electricity. Overall, the 4585 MWsolar power plant project is held through Xinyi Energy; The solar power plant project with a capacity of 1560MWis held by several wholly owned subsidiaries of the company. A solar power plant project with a capacity of100 megawatts is held by an entity in which the group holds a 50% stake. What’s Different ➢The price of photovoltaic glass has bottomed out and rebounded.According to Baiinfo, as of September25, 2025, the national average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 20 yuan/square meter, an increaseof 11.11% compared to the previous month, an increase of 2.56% compared to the previous quarter, an increaseof 2.56% compared to the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 6.98% compared to last year; The averageprice of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass coating is 13 yuan/square meter, up 18.18% from last month, up 13.04% fromthe previous quarter, up 8.33% from the beginning of the year, and up 4% from last year. ➢The uncertainty brought about by policy changes has triggered a wave of rush to install photovoltaicprojects in China.Driven by expected policy changes, China's photovoltaic installed capacity surged in 2025H1.According to data released by the National Energy Administration, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in25H1 increased by 107.1%YoY, reaching 212.21GW. The adoption of market pricing mechanisms for newprojects has increased the uncertainty of revenue, causing developers to compete to complete projects beforekey deadlines. The node for distributed projects is April 30, 2025, and the node for all newly installed projects isMay 31, 2025. The rush to install solar panels cause