全球半导体市场：SiC技术能否应用于先进封装领域？——探寻其中的投资机会

Global Semis: SiC for advanced packaging? Identifying theinvestment opportunities全球半导体市场：SiC技术能否应用于先进封装领域？——探寻其中的投资机会 According to news reports,TSMC is considering using SiC for advanced packaging,replacing the existing materials in the CoWoS process. SiC is suitable for advancedpackaging mainly because of its high thermal conductivity: its heat conductivity is 3x thatof Silicon, making it an ideal material when GPU makers try to maximize the power andperformance of chips.据新闻报道，台积电正在考虑使用碳化硅材料进行先进封装，以替代CoWoS工艺中目前使用的传统材料。碳化硅之所以适合用于先进封装，主要是因为其具有极高的导热性能：其导热系数是硅的3倍，这使得碳化硅成为GPU制造商在追求芯片更高功率和性能时的理想选择。 David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.comDavid Dai，CFA电话：+852 2918 5704邮箱：david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com马克·李+8522123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Based on our understanding, the potential usage of SiC in CoWoS is in two parts: 1.Conductive SiC is used for TIM(Thermal Interface Material) which sits above GPU/HBM,and below the heat sink, to act as a thermal gap filter and improve heat transfer. TIM playsa vital role in dissipating heat by providing a low-resistance path for heat to move from theactive silicon chips to the package lid and cooling systems. 2.Semi-insulating SiC can beused for interposers, replace conventional silicon or RDL materials.根据我们的理解，碳化硅在CoWoS技术中的潜在应用主要体现在两个方面：1. 导电型碳化硅被用作热界面材料（TIM），这种材料位于GPU/HBM上方、散热器下方，其作用是填充热量传递过程中的间隙，从而提升热传导效率。热界面材料在散热过程中起着至关重要的作用——它为热量从活性硅芯片传递到封装外壳及冷却系统提供了低阻力的通道。 2. 半绝缘型碳化硅则可以用于制作中介层，替代传统的硅基或RDL材料。 Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.comJuho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano+44 207 762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com卡米内·米兰诺+44 207 762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com The new technology won’t be easy to implement as there are several major challenges suchas capacity, extended production time and increased contact resistance, and we believethis technology is still some time away, with SiC TIM starting first, while SiC interposer islikely to be further out.这项新技术的实现并不容易，因为存在诸多重大挑战——比如产能限制、生产周期延长以及接触电阻增加等问题。我们认为，这项技术还需要一段时间才能真正应用起来：首先会推出基于碳化硅的导热界面材料，而碳化硅中介层材料的应用则可能要更晚一些。 Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.comEdward Hou，CFA电话：+852 2123 2623邮箱：edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com蔡一平，CFA电话：+852 2123 2669邮箱：yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com However, the opportunity set is also big. We estimate current year-end CoWoS capacityto be ~70kwpm, and growing to ~110kwpm by end of next year.If hypothetically allinterposers and TIM are to be replaced by SiC, the total SiC capacity needed wouldbe 220kwpm(half for interposers and half for TIM). This demand potentially would be2xthe current SiC capacity (92kwpm at end 2025), although this is based on simplisticassumptions.然而，市场机会也非常广阔。我们估计，今年年底的CoWoS产能约为7000千瓦/小时，并且到明年年底将增长至约11000千瓦/小时。如果假设所有的中间层材料和导热绝缘材料都被碳化硅所取代，那么所需的碳化硅总产能将达到22000千瓦/小时（其中一半用于中间层材料，另一半用于导热绝缘材料）。这种需求量可能会是当前碳化硅产能的两倍（到2025年底将达到92000千瓦/小时），不过这一预测是基于一些简化的假设得出的。 As for our coverage companies, we believeDISCO could benefit from this the most,as they used to have almost 20% of equipment sales coming from SiC, but now it’s 1/3of the previous levels. Also, SiC has higher consumables (higher margin vs. equipments)intensity compared to Si which could further lift margins.Renesas has an option valuefrom the (up to) 35% stake of Wolfspeed, which is capable of producing 12” SiC wafers.Wolfspeed’s pro forma equity value is estimated at $1.1 billion, implying Renesas’s 35%stake is worth around $400 million. However, the current market cap suggests a $7billion valuation, pricing Wolfspeed at roughly 13–14x its projected 2029 EBITDA. On theother hand, SUMCO rallied with GlobalWafers and valuation is getty quite high again, butSUMCO has nothing to benefit from SiC(versus GlobalWafers which does) and thiscould potentially provide an opportunity for a tactical short.至于我们的相关企业，我们认为DISCO可能会从中受益最多。因为过去他们有近20%的设备销售收入来自碳化硅产品，但现在这一比例已经降到了原来的三分之一。此外，与硅材料相比，碳化硅在耗材方面的成本占比更高（即耗材的利润率高于设备本身），这有望进一步提升企业的利润率。瑞萨通过持有Wolfspeed高达35%的股份而获得了相应的投资价值——Wolfspeed具备生产12英寸碳化硅晶圆的能力。据估计，Wolfspeed的账面价值约为11亿美元，这意味着瑞萨持有的35%股份价值大约为4亿美元。然而，根据当前的市场估值，Wolfspeed的市值达到了70亿美元，其股价约为2029年预计EBITDA的13至14倍。另一方面，SUMCO的股价随着GlobalWafers的上涨而一同回升，但其业务与碳化硅产业并无直接关联（而GlobalWafers则与之密切相关），因此这或许为投资者提供了进行战术性卖空操作的机会。 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS投资影响 DISCO: We rate DISCO Outperform with PT of ¥52,800.Renesas: We rate Renesas Outperform with PT of ¥2,300.00.Infineon: We rate Infineon Outperform with PT of €49.00.SUMCO:We rate SUMCO Market-Perform with PT of ¥1,260.00.TSMC:We rate TSMC Outperform with PT of NT$1,444.00.瑞萨：我们给予瑞萨“超越市场表现”的评级，目标价为2,300元人民币。SUMCO：我们给予SUMCO“市场表现良好”的评级，目标股价为1,260日元。台积电：我们给予台积电“超越市场表现”的评级，目标股价为1,444新台币。英飞凌：我们给予英飞凌“超越预期”的评级，目标股价为49.00欧元。DISCO：我们给予DISCO“超越市场表现”的评级，目标价为52,800元人民币。 DETAILS详细信息 According to News reports, TSMC is considering using SiC for advanced packaging, replacing the existing material in theCoWoS process.据新闻报道，台积电正在考虑在先进封装技术中使用碳化硅材料，以取代目前CoWoS工艺中使用的传统材料。 Based