全球新兴市场策略师：我们能打败2017年吗？

September 8, 2025 07:44 PM GMT Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Global EM Strategist James K LordStrategistJames.Lord@morganstanley.com+44 20 7677-3254Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Can We Beat 2017? Simon WaeverStrategistSimon.Waever@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8101 Returns have been strong YTD, but foreign buying of EM localbonds has been muted. Positioning is thus light. The pace ofbuying should pick up as the Fed easing cycle kicks in again,pushing USD and yields lower. Full-year returns are on track tobeat 2017. Emma C CerdaStrategistEmma.Cerda@morganstanley.com Key Takeaways Returns from local markets have been a very strong +14% YTD. We think full-yearreturns could surpass 2017 (+16%), even if a traditional September bump in theroad materialises. Neville Z MandimikaStrategistNeville.Mandimika@morganstanley.com+44 20 7425-2509 Positioning is not heavy. Foreign investor buying of EM local bonds has beenmuted YTD. Our options positioning tracker suggests neutral FX positioning inUSD. Arnav GuptaStrategistArnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0382 David CuevaStrategistDavid.Cueva@morganstanley.com+44 20 7425-2143Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ We expect the DXY to keep falling with EUR/USD going to 1.20. The US marketpricing a deeper cycle is key to this view. Relative valuations are cheapening too, with EM local versus UST real yieldsdifferentials still widening. LatAm and CEEMEA continue to offer value. We remove our like stance on Colombia sovereign credit after its strongperformance following two buyback operations and see limited upside in the nearterm from its election and the risk of negative fiscal prints. Nimish M PrabhuneStrategistNimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com+91 22 6996-1862 Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global EM Strategy LatAm Macro Strategy – Brazil and Mexico: Diverging Duration Plays| 08-Sep-2025 US rates should still favour receivers in Mexico and Brazil, but the stages oftheir domestic monetary policy cycles and some data divergence suggestdifferentiated exposure by tenor. We like longer-duration exposure in Mexico,but shorter-duration exposure in Brazil. EM Sovereign Credit Strategist – Caught in the Steepening| 05-Sep-2025If the US Treasury yield curve keeps steepening, we expect a similar reactionfrom EM credit as seen so far – flatter credit curves but with the long endunderperforming in total return terms. This means sticking to 10y bondsdespite this being where most supply will likely still materialise. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. EM Sovereign Credit Strategy – Pemex: A Buyback That Further SupportsCompression versus the Sovereign| 03-Sep-2025 For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. The US$9.9 billion tender announcement is positive in itself yet if funded viaa new sovereign issuance it would be even more positive by adding to theexisting support from the P-caps. We expect the tender to extend far downthe priority list, perhaps not even reaching the maximum amount. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Chile Economics & Strategy – Spring in Chile: Framing Election Outcomes| 02-Sep-2025 With Chile's election approaching, we outline base, bull, and bear scenariosfor the economy and their market implications. We see a path to higherpotential growth and upgrade Chilean equities, but turn neutral on sovereigncredit. USD/CLP could drop to 900 or lower. Global EM Strategy James LordJames.Lord@morganstanley.com MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC +44 20 7677-3254+44 20 677-0282 Arnav GuptaArnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com David CuevaDavid.Cueva@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2143 Gek Teng KhooGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED Ioana ZamfirIoana.Zamfir@morganstanley.com MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Simon WaeverSimon.Waever@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8101 Emma CerdaEmma.Cerda@morganstanley.com Can we beat 2017? Returns on EM local currency government bonds have been strong this year, with theindex delivering close to 15% year to date in USD terms. In fact, it's been one of thestrongest years since 2013, with only 2016 and 2017 matching the year-to-dateperformance so far. However, unlike 2016 and 2017, we think there is every chance that the asset class willpower on to generate further returns in the final months of the year. True, the precedentof 2016 and