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Isabel SchnabelMember of the Executive Boardof the ECB www.ecb.europa.eu ©Chief Economists’ meetingEuropean Investment Bank, Luxembourg, 15 September 2025 RubricStaff projections confirm medium-term price stability as economy grows close to potential Euro area real GDP growth(quarter-on-quarter percentage changes) RubricDomestic demand has recovered robustly despite challenging global environment Real GDP and components(year-on-year percentage changes; percentage point contributions) RubricGlobal economy still resilient, while impact of tariffs on exports remains uncertain Euro area exports to the United States(annual percentage changes; 12-month cumulative sum) RubricImpact of uncertainty on investment may be overstated RubricReal effective exchange rate and relative tariffs matter for price competitiveness Relative competitiveness in US market(weighted tariff rates on goods and services, percentage) www.ecb.europa.eu© RubricSecond China shock requires rebalancing of the economy towards domestic demand Number of product categories with comparativeadvantage of both China and another country RubricSaving rate normalisation and strong balance sheets should underpin consumption Real gross disposable income per capitaandloans to households Saving ratio in the euro area(% of gross disposable income) (lhs: index:2010=100; rhs:% annual GDP) RubricLabour market remains robust with the euro area economy at full employment Non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment(NAWRU)andunemployment rate(percentages) RubricFiscal expansion could measurably support economic growth Impact of increase in government expenditureto 3% of GDP on economic growth(percentage point deviation from baseline) RubricEconomy to expand above potential growth, creating upward pressure on prices Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) (annual percentage changes) RubricTariffs are gradually raising underlying inflation in the United States RubricDue to supply chain interlinkages, tariffs are on net inflationary Impact of production networks oninflation response to tariff shocks(p.p. deviations) Impact of tariffs on growth and inflationacross tariff scenarios RubricChina’s excess supply and euro appreciation have limited impact on import prices so far Import prices of core consumergoods and EUR/USD(annual percentage changes) Import prices from China and EUR/CNY(annual percentage changes) RubricAppreciation largely reflects positive demand shock, limiting exchange rate pass-through (log changes) RubricSentiment towards the euro area is improving, easing financial conditions RubricFirms’ selling price expectations suggest no downside pressure on goods inflation Non-energy industrial goods inflation (NEIG) andmanufacturing selling price expectations(three-month moving average; response balances) RubricFood price inflation is re-accelerating, posing risks to consumer inflation expectations Unprocessed and total food inflation Consumers’ opinion on price trends(percentage balances) (annual percentage changes) RubricCore services inflation remains firm amid elevated selling price expectations Services selling price expectationsover next three months(percentage balances) Services inflation RubricFiscal expansion may slow down domestic disinflation Impact of increase in governmentexpenditure to 3% of GDP on HICP inflation(percentage point deviation from baseline) Survey of Monetary Analysts:HICP inflation and balance of risks RubricGrowing conviction in financial markets that interest rates are in a “good place” RubricSimple Taylor rules prescribe steady-hand policy, with risks skewed to the upside Taylor Rule predictions for short-term interest rates RubricMonetary policy should focus on underlying inflation over the medium term Lending rates and credit growth for non-financial private sector(percentages per annum for lending rate; annual percentage Revisions to the inflation projectioncompared with the June 2025 projections(percentage points) changes for credit growth) RubricCurrent interest rates are no longer restrictive, boosting the demand for mortgages Interest rates are in a good place as inflation stabilises around our 2% target and theeconomy remains resilient at full employment Healthy balance sheets, lower uncertainty and fiscal expansion underpin domesticdemand, counteracting a decline in net exports So far little evidence of China dumping exports, while the pass-through of a strongerexchange rate is likely to be limited Upside risks to inflation dominate, with tariffs, services inflation, food inflation and fiscalpolicy as potential drivers Monetary policy should keep a steady hand, tolerating moderate deviations from target Thank you very much for your attention!