25H1归母净利润同比下降37.4%，项目建设为公司发展奠定基础

25H1归母净利润同比下降37.4%，项目建设为公司发展奠定基础25H1Profit-37.4%YoY &Project construction lays the foundation 最新动态 ➢2025H1归母净利润同比下降37.4%。2025H1，集团实现营业收入约人民币57.05亿元，同比增长6.4%，实现归母净利润约人民币5.08亿元，同比下降37.4%。其中，半钢子午线轮胎营收为31.56亿元，同比提升3.0%；半钢子午线轮胎营收为24.62亿元，同比提升11.6%；斜交轮胎营收为0.87亿元，同比下降8.4%。 ➢25H1销售成本同比增加。25H1，集团的销售成本为47.58亿元，同比增加17.7%。该增加主要由于销量增加，原材料价格、人工费、海运费上涨和美国关税政策导致（2024H1公司收到原产自泰国的乘用车和轻卡轮胎反倾销退税的退回，冲回销售成本约人民币1.45亿元）。 ➢国际经销渠道收入提升，国内经销渠道收入承压。25H1，公司销售给经销商的收入（含贴牌客户）同比增长3.3%。其中，国际经销渠道收入同比大幅增长18.3%，主要受益于半钢子午线轮胎产品的量价齐升，以及全钢子午线轮胎平均售价的上涨（其销量持平）；国内经销渠道收入同比下降10.9%，主要因国内商用车轮胎替换市场需求疲软、库存压力高企及价格竞争加剧，导致销量下滑。25H1，销售给汽车制造商的收入同比增长30.5%，增长动力主要来自配套渠道销量增长20.6%及平均售价的提升。 动向解读 ➢项目建设为公司发展奠定基础。集团于2025年第一季度启动的山东非公路轮胎项目，产能规划为高性能工程子午胎产能8.4万条╱年、巨型工程子午胎产能1万条╱年。OTR项目于2025年第二季度开始建设，预计2029年达成设计产能OTR5万吨╱年，年产值约人民币10亿元。同时集团预计于2025年第三季度启动马来西亚轮胎生产基地项目（全钢子午线轮胎产能60万条╱年、半钢子午线轮胎产能600万条╱年），预计2027年至2028年陆续释放产能，达产后年产值约2.7亿美元。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们维持公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为10.55亿元、11.58亿元、12.75亿元。结合可比公司估值及AH股估值差异，给予公司2025年4.8倍PE，按照港元兑人民币0.92汇率计算，对应目标价为8.61港币，给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 反倾销及反补贴税率风险、原材料价格波动的风险、海外投资风险、气候变化风险、外汇风险。 What’s New ➢The net profit decreased by 37.4%YoYin 2025H1.In2025H1,the group achieved revenue ofapproximately RMB 5.705 billion(YoY +6.4%), and net profit of approximately RMB 508 million(YoY-37.4%). Among them, the revenue of semi steel radial tires was 3.156 billion yuan(+3.0%YoY); Therevenue of semi steel radial tires was 2.462 billion yuan(+11.6%YoY); The revenue of diagonal tireswas 87 million yuan(YoY-8.4%). ➢The sales cost of 25H1 increasedYoY.In25H1, the sales cost of the group was 4.758 billion yuan(+17.7%YoY). The increase is mainly due to the increase in sales volume, rising raw material prices,labor costs, shipping costs,and US tariff policies (In 2024 H1, the company received a refund of anti-dumping tax refunds for passenger car and light truck tires originating from Thailand, offsetting salescosts of approximately RMB 145 million). ➢International distribution channel revenue has increased, while domestic distribution channelrevenue is under pressure.In25H1, the company's revenue from sales to distributors (includingOEM customers) increased by 3.3%YoY. Among them, the revenue from international distributionchannels increased significantly by 18.3%YoY, mainly benefiting from the simultaneous increase inquantity and price of semi steel radial tire products, as well as the increase in average selling price ofall steel radial tires (whose sales remained stable); Domestic distribution channel revenue decreasedby 10.9%YoY, mainly due to weak demand in the domestic commercial vehicle tire replacementmarket, high inventory pressure, and intensified price competition, resulting in a decline in sales.In25H1,the revenue sold to automobile manufacturers increased by 30.5%YoY, mainly driven by a20.6% increase in sales through supporting channels and an increase in average selling prices. What’s Different ➢The project construction lays the foundation for the company's development.The ShandongOff Highway Tire Project launched by the group in the first quarter of 2025 has a production capacityplan of 84000 high-performance engineering radial tires per year and 10000 giant engineering radialtires per year. The OTR project is scheduled to commence construction in the second quarter of 2025,with an expected design capacity of 50000 tons/year and an annual output value of approximatelyRMB 1 billion by 2029. At the same time, the group expects to launch the Malaysia tire productionbase project in the third quarter of 2025 (with an annual production capacity of 600000 all steel radialtires and 6 million semi steel radial tires), and is expected to gradually release production capacityfrom 2027 to 2028, with an annual output value ofapproximately 270 million US dollars after reachingfull capacity. Action ➢Profit forecast.Wemaintainthe net profit for 2025-2027 to 1.055 billion yuan, 1.158 billion yuan, and1.275 billion yuan, respectively. Based on the valuation differences between comparable companiesand AH shares, the company will be given 4.8xPE for 2025, calculated atHKDto RMB exchangerate of 0.92, corresponding toTPof HKD8.61.Wegivethecompanya "Buy" rating. Risks Risk of anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates, fluctuation of raw material prices, overseas investmentrisks, climate change risks, foreign exchange risks. 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，本科毕业于北京航空航天大学，硕士毕业于香港大学金融学专业，主要覆盖化工和新材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过500篇，主要覆盖行业包括化肥、农药、气体、炸药、氟化工、分子筛、电解液和合成生物学等行业。覆盖的公司包括：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、中国联塑、浦林成山、米高集团、中国石油化学、中国旭阳集团、彩客新能源、天德化工、理文化工等。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 01353 3537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer m