危地马拉：2025年第四条协商新闻稿；员工报告；危地马拉执行主任的发言（英）

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR FORGUATEMALA Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withGuatemala, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsSeptember 5, 2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withGuatemala. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onSeptember 5, 2025, following discussions that ended onJune 20,2025with the officials ofGuatemalaon economic developments and policies. Basedon information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted onJuly 31, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStatement by the Executive DirectorforGuatemala. The document listed below will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithGuatemala FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington,DC–September8,2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation forGuatemala.1The authorities haveconsented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 Thanks to prudent macroeconomic management, Guatemala has maintained a resilienteconomy, achieved low inflation, ample policy buffers and, for the last few years, a positivecurrent account; all these factors have contributed to increasingly favorable market access.However, reforms are needed to shift the country into a high investment/high growthequilibrium and to meaningfully reduce poverty. The macroeconomic outlook remains strong, though there is elevated uncertainty related tochanging trade and migration policies abroad. Economic growth is expected to hold at 3.8percent in 2025, with the sizeable fiscal impulse offsetting the softening inprivate demand. External headwinds are expected to keep growth around 3.5 percent in 2026–27, while in lateryears, growth could converge to 4 percent owing to infrastructure investments and ongoingreforms, including to improve governance and quality of public spending.Inflation is projectedto gradually return to the monetary policy target (4 percent ± 1 percentage point). Fiscaldeficits of about 3 percent of GDP are expected to persist in the medium term, leading topublic debt reaching 30 percent of GDP by the end ofthe projection period. The balance of risks is tilted to the downside. Domestically, the political opportunities foradvancing necessary reforms remain constrained. Externally, trade policy uncertainty andrisks to global growth can heavily impact investment decisions, while shifts in migration policyin destination countries pose risks to remittance-supported spending. Changes in the domesticlabor market on account of declining net emigration could be an opportunity, but also posechallenges. Guatemala also remains vulnerable to severe weather events. Executive Board Assessment3 Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended theauthorities’ prudent macroeconomic policies, which have delivered low inflation and robustpolicy buffers. They noted that Guatemala’s economy remains resilient and generally wellpositioned to face external shocks and domestic challenges. Nonetheless, Directors stressedthat maintaining growth momentum and achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in themedium term will require determined implementation of reforms including better-quality publicspending and continued improvements in governance and the business climate. Directors generally considered the 2025 expansionary fiscal stance appropriate givensoftening private demand. Over the medium term, reverting fiscal deficits to historicalaverages of around 2 percent of GDP would be warranted. In this regard, revenue andexpenditure reforms will be essential for maintaining fiscal sustainability while accommodatinghigher infrastructure and social spending. In particular, Directors highlighted the need tostrengthen revenue mobilization, improve the targeting of social programs and the efficiency ofpublic spending, enhance budget planning and execution, and strengthen public financialmanagement. Directors also encouraged increasing reliance on domestic funding, anchored ina credible medium-term d