全球大类资产配置周观察

——全球大类资产配置周观察 2025䌑09劓21傽 缋嵴◜⚂勔 季 耘 臅 ⥈ 㐃FOMC⚷ 駖 ┪ 㵌 䉘 㸞 臅 ꊝ 㕈 ꓭ ⯈ 椚 潨 吙 ⶔ ꭊ ┬ 騫25╗ 㕈 掾 蔸4.00%ˊ4.25%睋 ⻉ 䉗 㐙 册 ꇁ 뀔 劻 ն勔 姍 㛽 僻 눢 姍 僻 燛 ⫭ ⪝ 㹧 ╃ 溸┬ 鉿 낊 ꯟ ┪ ⶬ  䟩 ⽱ 濫 侓 瞬 呻 厜 溸 낊 ꯟ ꓨ 䖦 䉂 ♈ ꄽ 芤 ꄢ 庱 鿛 ⻔ 㹧 ╃ ն ⛰ 랄 㥓㸸 ⻎ 僓 䒩 騫 勔 姍 ꮴ 䛉 剳 䱹 ꂀ  ⟛ ꯟ 䑑  脯 긌  侬 挩 䑑  ⻑ 缩 溸 ꮴ 䛉 鴤 䔴 ꂖ 괛锢 剳 㝃 㹧 ╃ ⾕ ꄽ 芤 俚 䰕 間 㷌 ն㎼ ⫐ 做 긖 8劓 ⚌ ╚ ㎼ 缋 嵴 俚 䰕 兇 獏 ❵ 괛 ═ 盛 俚䰕 㐭 ⮃ 楓 ◗ 㸰 䋀 侅 罥  䧶 괛 锢 假 ┞ 鿝 ⥈ 㜜 侓 瞬ն ⮕卥䉞 杨超(010-8092-7696*yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S0130522030004 煝疵ⲙ槏賺┞瓨յ氭⫊굖 ガ⿣䉗㐙1勔 季묛 ꓭ ⚃ 呬 痓 熏⸉ ⺮ 둛 掾 蔸3689耘 ⩧/漯 ⺶ 갫 ⻑ 㐃 둛 ⛻ ⼯楓 괭 衄䘒 ⲹն╚ ꪍ 劻匡 澚蝄㹧╃ 俚 䰕 ⮃ 楓 兇 詇 䛔  䌔 䩤 熏뀔 ꮑ 䑑 ꮴ 䛉溸虹 㞎♨ ⹴ 杅 劫 册 㸉 耘 臅 ⥈ 栃 皒 䙎 溸 愗 㐃 䌏 뀔 㐭 ⺪ 茤 ꂛ ┞ 婢 䒩  묛 ꓭ 溸 ┪ 鉿Ⲙ ⲇ ն2ⸯ 岓 勔 季 ㎼ ꮪ 岓 ⚃㸰 䋀 ┬ 鉿 랄 㥓 㸸 㸉 ꄽ 芤 溸 驐 䡪 䘒 䍳 㸍 蔺 䉗 㐙㸉 侓 瞬 㸉 ⸯ 岓 괛 寛 ⯢ 應 溸 口 䖦 劔 ꮺն╚ ꪍ 劻 匡 澚 ⪢ 槊 缋 嵴 侒 罏 㸉 괛 寛 䓺 䧯 ⸐⯜  㐃 㐌 罔 낊 ꯟ 勑 僻 兇 ⶬ 绣 溸 芻 冎 ┬  岓 ⚃ 㝕 嚤 椚 缰 䭥 ⶔ ꭊ 괭 衄 ⢟ 䒙 呬 㹾 ն 潸⪸煝疵 2025-09-19焝绩餿䝽낊ꯟ徱⚃侅痚ꪍ绩⯈㟲긌耘낊ꯟ鰑☋耘臅⥈9劓駖䛉⚷駖⬑駖闌騣 2025-09-09㜾鰑Ⲏ♎╚㎼艧玭䉗㐙儱⻲䭥缩⹴ꂖ㐃▷☴冀2025-09-09睘┩ꮕ嫙鰆椚侊긞訒㐌㸉䉗㐙䔕⿱㠁✇㕈ꓭꨆみ鰆氠硅槏假閕掾駬2025-09-08A艧╚䫟╃缥劔〘◲澚掾2025-09-08艧2025╚䫟╃缥掾駬漥⯈茤ⲇ侊ㄌ佻临艧┪巹2025-09-022025䌑9劓䫌鰑缀⻉䫟⼴╃缥╬ꨠ侓瞬╬䉛 ⡺⯟䉗㐙 耘 ⡺ 勔 季 耘 ⡺ 侅 漩 椚 괭 衄 ┪ 鉿  ╭ 锢 ⺇ ⯒ ꮴ 䛉 뀔 劻 ⾕ 㵄 ꮪ亣 ✑ 溸 䔕 ⿱ ն╚ ꪍ 劻 澚 䓝 ⯼ ꄽ 芤 俚 䰕 䌔 勑 㴟 ⪢ 㜘 ◟ ╚ 䙎 寊 䌐 耘 臅 ⥈ ⻑ 缩 ꮴ䛉♇ 괛 锢 間 㷌 ⻑ 缩 溸 㹧 ╃ ⾕ ꄽ 芤 俚 䰕 溸 銩 楓 ն蝄ꄽ 芤 뀔 劻 ┪ 鉿 䉗 㐙 䧶㸉 ꪍ ⡺锢 寛 剳 둛 溸 낊 ꯟ 徱 ⚃ն婟 㜾 蝄 耘 臅 ⥈ 栃 皒 䙎 ⺇ ⯒ ⬐ ⮄ 㸞 ꂛ ┞ 婢 䲀 ⶬ 耘 ⡺ 劻ꮺ 徱 ⚃ ն╚ ⡺ 勔 季 ╚ ⡺ 侅 漩 椚 괭 衄 ┪ 鉿 季 ⮵㝠 鉿 ꄽ ꁩ 㸰 뀭 둛 뀡 ꄋ㎈ 鯺 亣 ✑ ꓤ 侒 甯 㴼 口 ⺵ ⻎ 僓 䉗 㐙 㸉 ꓨ ⼅ ㎼ ⡺ 况 ⷀ 亣 ✑ 溸 뀔 劻 ⶬ 廛侅 漩 椚 ┬鉿 ն ⛰ 갫 濫 耘 臅 ⥈낊 ꯟ 硅 槏䑑 ꮴ 䛉溸 訒 㐌  낊 ꯟ ⢟ 㟲 䌐 甯  侅 漩 椚 ┪ 鉿 ն╚ ꪍ 劻 匡 澚  ╚ ⡺ 侅 漩 椚 劔 ┬ 鉿 疿 ꭊ ⛰ 䋀 䍳 劔 ꮺ  蝄 耘 臅 ⥈10劓 駖 䛉 ⚷ 駖 ꓤ侒 먧 嵟 口 ⺵┻径 㳌 䍳㎼ ⫐ 缋 嵴䪩 ⸐  㝠 鉿 䧶 Ⲏ 㝕 㶄 卄 ⲇ 䍳 䑜 㸍 侅 漩 椚 ┬ 鉿 ն 寤 椚 䉗 㐙 勔 季 耘⩧ 䭰 俚 괭 衄┪鉿 ╭ 锢 ⺇ ⯒䉗 㐙 㸉 䭥 缩 㶄 卄 溸 䬁 峜 ꮴ 廛䔕⿱ ն긌 耘 鯴 䉕 ╚ 姚 ⩧ ┪ 巹 蝠 ꩗ ┬ 鳰 傽 ⩧ ㎌ ╬ ⮃ ⺛ 俚 䰕 ┬ 鉿 ♨ ⹴ 耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉䔕 ⿱ 㸰 䋀 ┬ 鳰 ⻎ 僓 瑠 㽺 ☭ 宑 䉕 㸰 䋀 ┬ 鳰 ն㺥 労 ╚ ꪍ 劻 蝄 耘 臅 ⥈ ꂛ ⪝ ꮴ 䛉 季劻  耘 ⩧ 䧶 긖 ╤ 鱶 ⲹ 䙎 鱂 䒙  긌 耘 鯴 䉕 劔 労 䐥 缩 廛 ⾕ ㎈ ⶬ ն 2025-09-01䓝⯼A艧䉗㐙溸⭠掾䘽脞 2025-08-20⹹⫐ⷳ╚㸌䫌鰑编⚷ⶥ◩◩閕⮦㺥労笡⮬ 勶 漩 䉗 㐙 勔 季 ⪢槊 ╭ 锢 艧 䉗㐭 䓡 䕒 ┪ 巹  兇 楓 ⮃ 耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉 ┬ ⪢ 槊 溸 낊 ꯟ鰑 ☋ ⢟ 㟲 ㎈ ⶬ ♨ ⹴ 璇 盎 升 㑊 ⛓ ⡽ ⟶ 㜩 溸 杅 䔰 ն╚ ꪍ 劻 匡 澚 ꮴ 䛉 燛 㵄 劔 ⲙ ◟ ꓤ侒 嵤 Ⲙ 䙎 ⛰ 䓝 ⯼ 鰑 ꓭ 楒 㘷 㸉 ⚕ ╃ 漥 ⯈ 侊 ㄌ 溸 侞 卸 ♇ ⪾ ┯ 燛 㴼 䙎 ն勑 匡 耘 艧 溸銩 楓  ♇ 㸞 둛 䍳 ❹ 鰣 ◟ ☭ 䈰 冝 茤 潸 ⪸ 뀔 劻 茤 ⻲ ꄢ 婢 訒 㐌 ⩽ 楓ն 2025-08-06┢ꌄꬾⰄ䭰假㒘䈰╃ꓭ鄌嵛寊ꨠ㴼假鯵气☋ⲇ 2025-07-318劓䫌鰑缀⻉䫟⼴侓瞬뀔绩+╃缥䫞薨2025-07-317劓⬑駖⢟멚9劓ꮴ䛉瘎⺛ꂖ㐃⻜ 낊 ꯟ 䳀 獏 嶯 㜾 ꮴ 䛉 ┯ 燛 㴼 낊 ꯟ  杅 劫 册 假 侓 瞬 ┯ 燛 㴼 낊 ꯟ  㐌 罔 ㎌ 筷 䪑 Ⲙ낊 ꯟ  䉗 㐙 䝠 缦 ┯ 甯 㴼 낊 ꯟ  ㎼ ⫐ 侓 瞬 訒 㐌 侞 卸 ┯ ⹴ 뀔 劻 낊 ꯟ 2025-07-16A艧낊呬鿛䰄溸⸉⺮㜩漽┱㎈嵱⮕卥2025-07-152025䌑╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⫐㵽闌騣╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⯈㟲A艧䉗㐙ꊙ◲升㑊 2025-06-262025䌑㝕稝鰑☋╚绩䫌鰑㺥労뎣⺈騳ⲹ 潨䓡Catalog ┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓..........................................................................................................................◝յ㝕㴵ガ⿣......................................................................................................................................┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙...................................................................................................................................◝ⸯ岓䉗㐙...................................................................................................................................┩յ⡺⯟䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................┞耘⡺侅漩椚................................................................................................................................◝╚⡺侅漩椚................................................................................................................................㎃յ寤椚䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................┞耘⩧䭰俚...................................................................................................................................◝姚⩧⩽耘⩧................................................................................................................................┩蝠꩗⩽耘⩧................................................................................................................................㎃耘⩧⩽傽⩧................................................................................................................................◩耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕.............................................................................................................................◩յ勶漩䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................⪮յ낊ꯟ䳀獏...................................................................................................................................... ┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓 2025䌑9劓15傽 蔸9劓19傽  嶯 㜾 做 긖  耘 臅 ⥈ 㐃9劓FOMC⚷ 駖 ┪ 㵌 䉘 㸞 臅 ꊝ 㕈 ꓭ ⯈椚 潨 吙 ⶔ ꭊ ┬ 騫25╗ 㕈 掾 蔸4.00%ˊ4.25% 睋 ⻉ 䉗 㐙 册 ꇁ 뀔 劻 ն ⛰ 勔 姍 㛽 僻 눢 姍 僻 燛 ⫭ ⪝  㹧╃ 溸 ┬ 鉿 낊 ꯟ ┪ ⶬ  ┱ 랄 㥓 㸸 㐃Jackson Hole駚 騅 ⟛ 䭥 ┞ 蔺  䟩 ⽱ 濫 侓 瞬 呻 厜 溸 낊 ꯟ ꓨ 䖦 䉂 ♈ꄽ 芤 ꄢ 庱 鿛 ⻔ 㹧 ╃ ն ⛰ 랄 㥓 㸸 ⻎ 僓 䒩 騫 勔 姍 ꮴ 䛉 剳 䱹 ꂀ  ⟛ ꯟ 䑑  脯 긌  侬 挩 䑑  ⻑ 缩 溸 ꮴ 䛉鴤 䔴 ꂖ 괛 锢 剳 㝃 㹧 ╃ ⾕ ꄽ 芤 俚 䰕 間 㷌 ն⻎ 僓 ♈ 掾 ꮔ ㎽ 匡 澚 耘 臅 ⥈ 㝃 俚 嵟 ❹ 撬 ⡿ ⻔ 㸰 婢 㶄 卄 ⟛ 䭥 ꄢ ⚷ 駬 ⛓ 溸 挺 嵛 䙎