商品市场洞察与国债期货策略报告

Morning Insight:September 19, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Container Freight Index (Europe Route):10 under pressure; 12 and 02 inwide-range fluctuations. For the 2510 contract, during weeks 39–41, the quoted rate center mayfall to the range of USD 1450–1500/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index ofaround 1015–1050 points (±30), which basically sets the level for thefirst two delivery settlement prices of the 2510 contract. HPL-SPOT hasannounced a USD 200/FEU increase in late October, making week 42 freightrate trends uncertain. Overall, the settlement price of the 2510 contractis highly likely to remain within 1100 points. For the 2512 contract, shipping companies may repeatedly announce ratehikes for November–December. We believe the seasonal characteristics ofthe Europe route cannot be ignored. However, compared with last year,there are two bearish factors for this year’s December peak season: 1.)The relatively late 2026 Spring Festival may delay cargo volume peakscompared with last year; 2.) the pressure of oversupply continues to growyear by year, making it highly likely that freight rate centers willshift lower compared with the first half of the year. Therefore, the 2512 contract should not be overly overestimated, and werecommend treating it with a wide-range fluctuation approach. For the 2602 contract, the 2026 Spring Festival is half a month laterthan in 2025 (January 28, 2025 vs. February 17, 2026). In past years withlater Spring Festivals (e.g., 2010, 2015, 2018), the February contractwas not necessarily at a discount to theDecember contract. Strategy: From a medium-to long-term perspective, consider buying the02–04 and 12–04 spreads on dips.Treasury Futures:In the short term there may be a mild rebound, but westill maintain a range-bound bearish view, which has not changed sincethe mid-term strategy meeting at the end of June. In a weak and range-bound market, we recommend seizing opportunities to hedge onrallies,engage in positive spreads, and go long on calendar spreads.The weakness in government bond futures is mainly driven by threefactors. First, this year’s policy orientation favors equities overbonds, with the central bank continuing to strictly prevent idlecirculation of funds, the Ministry of Finance resuming collection ofvalue-added tax on certain bond interest, the continuous efforts tomaintain equity market sentiment, as well as expectations of potential“anti-involution”policies. These factors have led to a retreat of pasttrend-following long positions. Although expectations of interest ratecuts still exist, the market has already formed a pattern of resiliencein short durations and high volatility in long durations.Second, inflation expectations have begun to warm at the margin. The mid-year PPI year-on-year figure has been confirmed as the annual low, andwith the continuation of“anti-involution”measures, commodity priceshave improved month-on-month. Although inflation expectations will notrise rapidly or significantly, this marginal improvement has alreadyaltered the pricing logic for medium-and long-duration bonds.Third, the negative feedback loop in capital flows is still unfolding,from asset management redemptions at institutions, to proprietaryinstitutions shifting their positions, and on to household wealthreallocations. Under a weak macroeconomic backdrop, this process isprogressing slowly and remains at the junction between the first andsecond phases.In summary, over the next six months the bond market may presentstructural opportunities, but systematic trend opportunities may have to wait until the next peak in fundamentals. We continue to maintain arange-bound bearish outlook, unchanged since the mid-term strategymeeting at the end of June. In a weak and range-bound market, we suggesthedging on rallies, engaging in positive spreads, and going long oncalendar spreads. At the same time, please feel free to contact our salesor asset management department for details on our firm’s customizedarbitrage and hedging products in government bond futures. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure has maintainedrapid growth, with the total number of facilities reaching nearly 17.35million units by the end of August, up 53.5 percent from a year earlier,official data showed Thursday. Public EV charging facilities stood at about 4.32 million units, anincrease of 37.8 percent year on year. Their combined rated power hit 196million kilowatts, according to the National Energy Administration.Private charging facilities expanded at an even faster pace, jumping 59.6percent year on year to 13.03 million units, the administration said.The robust growth