莱索托王国：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASEANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withtheKingdom of Lesotho, the following documents have been released and are included inthis package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onJune17,2025, with the officials oftheKingdom of Lesothoon economicdevelopments and policies. Based on information available at the time of thesediscussions, the staff report was completed onAugust21,2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith the Kingdom of Lesotho FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Against a backdrop of low growth and high unemployment, Lesotho’s government-ledgrowth model has struggled to deliver on the authorities’ development goals. Now, anadditional set of shocks has further clouded the outlook. GDP growth is expected to fall to1.4 percent in FY25/26, from 2.2 percent a year earlier. Inflation has declined from a peakof 8.2 percent in early 2024 to 4.4 percent in May 2025, helped by the peg to the rand. •Prudent spending in FY24/25, along with buoyant South African Customs Union (SACU)transfers and water royalties, delivered another sizable fiscal surplus. Looking forward,SACU transfers are expected to normalize, but increased water royalties fromSouth Africa will help fill the gap and ensure continued strong revenue. •The main challenge is to transform fiscal surpluses into sustainable and high-qualitygrowth. Public funds should be saved wisely and spent strategically, with an emphasis onhigh-return investment projects. More effective use of public funds, alongside structuralreforms, should support longer-term private sector-led growth. Washington, DC – September 18, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for the Kingdom of Lesotho1. GDP growth picked up slightly in FY24 to 2.2 percent, inflation has eased, and fiscaland external balances remain strong.Construction of the Lesotho Highlands Water ProjectII has helped offset a decline in agricultural output, falling competitiveness in the apparelsector, and lower diamond prices. Easing price pressures and lower imported inflation fromSouth Africa have brought headline inflation down from a peak of 8.2 percent in January 2024,to 4.4 percent in May 2025. On fiscal policy, Lesotho had a larger-than-expected fiscal surplusof 9 percent of GDP in FY24, supported by continued spending restraint, along with recordSACU transfers and higher water royalties from South Africa. Gross public debt eased to56.8 percent of GDP as of March 2025, with 80 percent owed to external creditors. Thecurrent account balance registered a surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP, the first surplus sinceFY07, with lower imports and higher SACU transfers and water sales more than offsettinglower exports. Lesotho’s outlook has worsened since the 2024 Article IV consultation, largelyreflecting a less benign external environment.The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs onLesotho’s textile exports has weakened a central pillar of the economy. At the same time, thedisruption of U.S. official development assistance poses risks to key social services. As a result, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.4 percent in FY25. Garment production for theU.S. market will likely fall (continuing an ongoing trend), but this will be partially offset by risingtextile exports to South Africa, which have increased steadily in recent years. Going forward,delayed domestic reforms will likely keep growth subdued over the medium term, at about1.5 percent—not enough to significantly improve per capita incomes. Strong buffers will provide policy options.Supported by significant international reserves,the currency is credibly pegged to the rand, suggesting inflation trends in Lesotho will continueto mirror those in South Africa. Fiscal revenues are forecast to remain 8 to10 percentagepoints of GDP higher than a few years ago. SACU transfers will normalize over the near termto about 20 percent of GDP (long-term average), but renegotiated water roya