保险与化学、生物、放射和核风险

Insurance andChemical, Biological,Radiological, andNuclear Risks September 2025 Insurance andChemical, Biological,Radiological, andNuclear Risks A joint report of the Geneva Associationand the International Forum of TerrorismRisk (Re)Insurance Pools (IFTRIP) Geneva Association The Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association ofinsurance companies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief ExecutiveOfficers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with ourmembers, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is toidentify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insuranceindustry in the future, highlighting what is at stake for the industry; developrecommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform to ourmembers and other stakeholders to discuss these trends and recommendations;and reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlightthe positive contributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to buildingresilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a more sustainable world. Photo credits: Cover page – Cash Macanaya for Unsplash Suggested citation: Geneva Association and International Forumof Terrorism Risk (Re)Insurance Pools (IFTRIP). 2025.InsuranceandChemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Risks.September. © Geneva Association, 2025 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.org Contents Acknowledgements4 5 Foreword Executive summary6 1.Introduction8 1.1Defining CBRN91.2Recent CBRN events101.3Catastrophic loss potential131.4Scope and structure of the report17 2.CBRN risk landscape18 2.1Terrorist motivations192.2Access to CBRN materials192.3New capabilities and innovation222.4CBRN infrastructure vulnerabilities25 3.Existing CBRN re/insurance arrangements27 3.1Primary cover for malicious CBRN incidents293.2Reinsurance and retrocession313.3Public-private schemes34 4.Re/insurers’ loss exposure4.1Modelled scenario insurance loss estimates4.2Beyond better risk models 363941 5.Conclusions and recommendations 5.1Develop best practices among IFTRIP members435.2Explore expanded international reciprocation arrangements445.3Strengthen dialogue between re/insurers and international policymakers44 Appendix 1 – Nuclear Threat Initiative Security Scores45 Appendix 2 – Detailed dirty bomb loss scenario (France)47 References52 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared as a joint effort between the Geneva Association and the InternationalForum of Terrorism Risk (Re)Insurance Pools (IFTRIP). Editorial contributions were provided inparticular by: This report has also benefitted significantly from inputs and comments from various insurers,brokers, and other IFTRIP member organisations. Foreword This joint report of the Geneva Association and International Forum of TerrorismRisk (Re)Insurance Pools (IFTRIP) offers a timely and comprehensive analysis of theimplications of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) risk for there/insurance sector. Though CBRN malicious incidents are, thankfully, rare, theirpotential consequences are uniquely catastrophic. Emerging technologies such asdrones and bioengineering are lowering the barriers for violent non-state actors(VSNAs) to access and operationalise CBRN materials. CBRN events have the powerto destabilise societies and economies in ways few other threats can, and raiseserious questions about preparedness, response, and financial resilience. The report identifies significant gaps in traditional coverage for CBRN-relatedlosses, with wide variation in how existing national insurance pools approach thethreat. Strengthening CBRN resilience will demand greater dialogue and cooperationbetween governments, insurers, national pools, and international policy organisations,on concrete mechanisms to better assess and manage risks. Against that background, this report also outlines practical pathways to help narrow theCBRN protection gap, improve modelling and scenario planning capabilities, and lay thegroundwork for longer-term innovative solutions, notably in cross-border risk-sharing.We have an opportunity to boost societal resilience: by acting now, the global re/insurancecommunity can help mitigate CBRN risks and ensure that future CBRN incidents do notresult in devastating human loss or massive economic dislocation. Jad ArissManaging Director,Geneva Association Steven Seitz Chair, IFTRIPDirector, Federal Insurance Office (FIO),US Department of the Treasury Executive summary CBRN risks are a growing threat to society, andthe limited ability of re/insurers to absorb themcreates a significant protection gap. Innovativepublic-private mechanisms would boost resilienceand mitigate potential economic disruption. The potential scale and uncertaintysurrounding losses from a CBRNincident limit how far re/insurers cancover these risks. The threat posed by chemical, bi