野村-美团（3690.HK）管理层电话会议要点-20250912【8页】

EQUITY: MEDIA & INTERNET Takeaways from management callQuick Note On 11 September, Nomura’s China Internet team hosted a group call with Meituan’smanagement to discuss the latest competitive landscape, growth targets and marginstrend in 2025. Research Analysts Food delivery competition remains intense in 3Q Management stated that the competition landscape for food delivery recently has notchanged significantly, similar to July and August with Meituan maintaining its leadingposition. Industry subsidy remains at high levels and Meituan will dynamically adjust itssubsidy strategy in response. China Internet & New Media Jialong Shi - NIHKJialong.shi@nomura.com+852 2252 1409 Rachel Guo - NIHKrachel.guo@nomura.com+852 2252 1400 Average order value (AOV) has declined significantly compared with the period beforeMay, especially on a net basis after subsidies. However, Meituan's AOV, both gross andnet, remains ahead of its competitors’, largely due to its lower subsidies and better ordermix. Management noted that 4Q is a weak season for food delivery in nature with theseasonally lower proportion of orders (e.g., beverage orders) and higher delivery cost perorder in 4Q. As such, subsidies might not be as effective in driving businessgrowth in 4Q,which we believe will likely lead to a more rational approach from all players. Besides, webelieve there exists a possibility that Alibaba's (BABA US, Buy) competitive focus mightshift to retail-related quick commerce which is the equivalent of Meituan’s instashoppingbusiness, as well as the integration of its quick commerce with its traditional ecommerceservice. In terms of regulation, the regulators have provided verbal guidance againstirrational competition, while we note no further concrete actions have been taken as yet. Long-term market share and margin targets Management expressed confidence in Meituan's competitive advantages in food delivery,citing its strong user base, high user stickiness, and a large proportion of mid- to high-frequency users. On the supply side, Meituan offers a comprehensive and cost-effectiveselection of restaurants across all price bands. The company's core competency also liesin its seasoned expertise to efficiently manage its nationwide riders’ network. Managementis confident of maintaining its leading unit economics (UE) and targets a long-term profit ofCNY1 per order, an achievable target which has factored in a more competitiveenvironment. In the long run, management expects to maintain a 70% market share interms of GTV in the core regular-meal category of the food delivery service business. For retail quick commerce (RQC), management believes the total addressable market forthis segment will be larger than expected and surpass CNY2tn by 2030E. Meituan isconfident of maintaining its leader position in this segment. Management expects the UEof RQC to eventually exceed CNY1 per order, driven by a higher AOV, more brands, andhigher advertising potential and a terminal GTV margin of around 2%. In-store, Hotel & Travel landscape likely to remain stable Management does not expect a significant disruption to the in-store business’ competitivelandscape. While the Alibaba-owned map service, Amap, recently launched a newrestaurant ranking product, the map apps are mobility tools by nature and there is a longlearning curve for them to provide the in-store service or to change the perception of theircustomers about these map apps, in our view. Meituan believes that the in-store servicerequires strong operational skills on the ground — persuading and connecting merchantsfrom various sectors to join the in-store platforms and to assist the merchants to adapt tothe online environment, which constitutes an entry barrier for any potential newcomers.Management believes that, for its in-store service, user habits are already entrenched, and Production Complete: 2025-09-12 06:17 UTC it would be difficult to change them without significant subsidies. That would result in apoor ROI for a low-frequency business for any newcomer, in our view. Management attributes the main challenges faced by the in-store service, Hotel andTravel business in the short term to the external environment, impacting demand andorder mix change with its market expansion into low-tier cities, which could weigh on theerevenue growth and profit margin of this business in 3Q. However, given in-store onlinepenetration is still at a relatively low level in China, management expects solid GTV growthover the next few years for its in-store business with margins recovering to reasonablelevels in the long run. Overseas expansion likely the only drag, while we expect China new businesseslikely to reach breakeven Meituan has been scaling back its community group buying business (Meituan Select),and we expect very marginal losses from Meituan Select by next year. The company isaccelerating the expansion of its Xiaoxiang Supermarket (小象超市)in Tier-1 and Tier-2cities, with losses t