供应冲击如何普遍化通胀？欧洲疫情时代的证据（英）

N O .1 1 6 4A U G U S T2 0 25 EvidenceFromthe HowDo Supply Shocksto Inflation Generalize?EvidenceFromthe Pandemic ErainEuropeViral V. Acharya,Matteo Crosignani,Tim Eisert,andChristian Eufinger FederalReserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no.1164August2025https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1164 Abstract We document how the interaction of supply chain pressures, elevated householdinflation expectations,and firm pricing power contributed to thepandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area.Initially, supplychain disruptions raised inflation, particularly in manufacturing,through acost-pushchannel, while also elevating inflation expectations. In turn, higherinflation expectations appear to havelowered the price elasticity of consumerdemand and strengthened firms’pricing power, enabling even JEL classification:E31, E58, D84, L11Keywords:inflation expectations, euro area, firm markups, market power, supply chain Crosignani: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR(email:matteo.crosignani@ny.frb.org).Acharya:NYU Stern, CEPR, ECGI, NBER(email:vva1@stern.nyu.edu).Eisert:Nova School of Business andEconomics, CEPR(email:tim.eisert@novasbe.pt).Eufinger:IESE(email:ceufinger@iese.edu).Theauthorsthank Filippo De Marco, Marco del Negro, Michael Weber, Gil Nogueira, Yang Liu, and LarsNorden, as well as seminar and conference participants at Yale, Western Finance Association Annualconference,Catolica Lisbon, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank of Italy, the EuropeanCentralBank, Norges Bank, NHH Bergen, the Danish Central Bank, University of Padova, IESE, CEPRLuiss FinanceWorkshop,Banco de Portugal, CEPR Conference on Financial Intermediation, the“HeterogenousHouseholds, Firms and Financial Intermediaries: Theoretical Insights and Validation with This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interestedreaders solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in this paper are those ofthe author(s) and do not necessarily reflect theposition of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the To view the authors’ disclosure statements, visithttps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1164.html. 1Introduction “Elasticity is a relative thing. Elasticity is lower where there’s high levels of price inflationacross the market. So we measure a relative price position. We are the price leader. — Graeme Pitkethly (Unilever CFO), Q4 2021 Earnings Call, 10 February 2022. In response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, governments andcentral banks implemented substantial stimulus measures to avert a deep recession.The global economy and aggregate demand rebounded rapidly, leading to a rise in inflation (seeReis, 2022a).Throughout 2021 and 2022, additional supply-side shocks intensified infla-tionary pressures. Notably, new pandemic waves and the resultant restrictions on economicactivity put severe strain on global value chains, resulting in shortages across various sectors.Moreover, energy prices began to climb in 2021 and surged dramatically in early 2022, fol- Using several cross-sectional and time-series tests, we show how supply chain pressures,household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to fuel the pandemic-era First, we document localized cost pass-through effects from supply chain constraints (leftpanel), which started rising in late 2020/early 2021, on prices—particularly in sectors directly which started to increase in early 2021 (middle section). Households, observing higher pricesin their own consumption baskets through theexperience channel(e.g., D’Acunto et al., 2021) and receiving news about supply-side shocks—such as cargo ship delays signaling risingcosts—via thenews channel(e.g., Larsen et al., 2021), revised their inflation expectationsin anticipation of broader increases in costs and prices. Ultimately, these elevated inflation A potential explanation for the mechanism is as follows: Following supply-side disrup-tions, households face a challenging signal extraction problem, needing to determine whetherthe shock and the resultant cost and price increases are local or widespread, which influ-ences their price search efforts and consumption choices (Benabou and Gertner, 1993; Fish-man, 1996; Gaballo and Paciello, 2022). When these shocks are perceived as common and To conduct our tests, we combine several data sets at various units of observation. At the industry-country-time level, we observe (i) firms’ production constraints from the JointHarmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS), and (ii) energy con-sumption data from Eurostat.At the country-time and at the household-time level, weobserve inflation expectations from the BCS and the European Central Bank (ECB) Con- Our analysis is structured in five parts. First, using a stringent fixed effects frameworkwith product-country, country-time, and product-time fixed effects, we document the pass-thro