澳门博彩：博彩毛收入持续复苏，融资渠道正常化

Macau gaming:GGR continues to recover and fundingaccess normalized Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Asdiscussed, the conviction level of Macau gaming bonds are notably lower,nonetheless, we consider Macau gaming bonds lower-beta and good carry playswith improving credit stories.We expect more new issues to come in view of thematurity profile and much more affordable funding costs after the solid bondperformance since the end of COVID lockdown.Our top picks are MPELs andSTCITYs in view of the improving market shares and growing adj. EBITDA ofMelco and Studio City, as well as the more appealing risk-return profiles ofMPELs/STCITYs.Meanwhile, we consider WYNMAC’27 and ‘29 yield pick-upplays, trading at 30-82bps over bonds of its US parent.We are neutral onMGMCHIs, SANLTDs,andSJMHOLs on valuation. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk GGR accelerated starting from 2Q25 InAug’25,the gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau rose 12.2% yoy toMOP22.2bn (cUSD2.77bn). Cumulatively, the GGR in 8M25 increased 7.2% yoyto MOP163.1bn, accelerating from the 6.5% yoy increase in 7M25. The8M25GGR is equivalent to c71.5% of Macau government’s revised GGR estimate ofMOP228bn (vs MOP226.8bn in 2024) which, in our view, is highly achievablegiven sustainable increase in tourist arrivals (up 14% yoy in 7M25).The 8M25GGR is equivalent to 82%of the level of pre-COVID in 2019. TheGGR growth in Macau gaming sector is accelerating starting from2Q25.While Melco is revamping the Countdown Hotel in Macau and will reopenthe premise in 3Q26; MGM China is renovating Cotai casino resort and therenovation will be completed in 1Q26.SJM is expanding Casino Lisboa byacquiring part of the Hotel Lisboa. These initiatives will sustain the growth ofgaming and non-gaming revenue next year. Melco and MGM China gained market shares during 1H25 Our top picks are MPELs and STCITYs Melco Resorts (MPEL) reported 12.7% yoy growth in operating revenue in 1H25 to USD2.6bn. City of Dreams Macau(COD Macau)’s rolling chip’s win rate was 3.83% in 1H25, higher than 1H24 and typical win rate of 2.85-3.15%.Studio City’s mass market table games drop hold percentage as well as gaming machine handle win were also higherin 1H25. The non-gaming revenue also increased in 1H25 yoy, driven by higher room occupancy rates and revenueper available room (REVPAR) at both COD Macau and Studio City. Besides, the House of Dancing Water at CODMacau reopened in May’25, the occupancy rate reached 98% since the reopening and contributed the non-gamingrevenue growth. We believe the opening of COD Sri Lanka in Aug’25, first integrated resort in Sri Lanka to cater the premium customersegment, as well as renovation of COD Macau (incl. Countdown Hotel) will support MPEL’s revenue growth in 2H25and onwards. MPEL is finalizing the full renovation of the high-end luxury Countdown Hotel, turning 330 rooms into150 luxury suites with over 1,000 sq. ft. each to serve the premium customers, is planned to be opened in 3Q26. MPEL continues to focus on cost optimization, reduced opex to USD3mn per day (excl. cost related to House ofDancing Water and Studio City’s residency concerts) in 2Q25. The opex for House of Dacing Water was cUSD0.1mnper day. These help improved the adj. EBITDA margin to 26.0% in 1H25, from 25.0% in 1H24. MPEL will close Grand Dragon Casino and three Mocha Clubs in 2H25 as announced in Jun’25. An one-off goodwillimpairment of USD56mn was recognized in 1H25. MPEL will continue the operations of the three remaining MochaClubs subject to the legal and regulatory requirements in Macau, i.e. until 31 Dec’25.In relation to COD Manila, MPEL is still working on shortlisting of potential buyers. While MPEL did not provide further detail on the potentialstake sale, we believe the proceeds from the sale could enhance MPEL’sfinancial flexibility and to reduce debts. As of Jun’25, MPEL had USD1.1bn cash and cash equivalent, USD1.0bn available credit facilities, and USD7.4bntotal debts. During the past two months, MPEL refinanced USD1bn MPEL 4.875 06/06/25 with the drawdownof RCF.Studio City refinanced USD222mn STCITY 6 07/15/25 with a combination of a drawdown of HKD1.3bn (cUSD170mn)from RCF and the remainder with cash on hand. These RCF were drawn in HKD given low HIBOR rates.As perMPEL, it expects to pay down more debts in 2H25 with FCF. In 1H25, MPEL spent USD215mn in capex, implyingUSD200mn to be spent in 2H25 under full year budgeted capex of USD415mn, mainly for the renovations and revampat COD Macau. We expect MPEL to fund its capex via its operating cash inflows and cash on hand. WYNMACs could be yield pick-up plays over bonds of its US parent Wynn Macau posted weaker 1H25 results due mainly to lower win rates. In 1H25, its revenue and adj. EBITDA wereHKD13.6bn and HKD3.5bn, down 7.5% and 20.4% yoy, respectively. The VIP win rates in Wynn Palace and WynnMacau were 2.74% and 2.03% (vs. expe