FY26E持续净亏损下的公允价值评估

NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) Fair valuation with continued net loss in FY26E Maintain HOLD.We acknowledge NIO’s cost reduction efforts, which hasbeen partially reflected in 2Q25 earnings. However, we expect losses tocontinue in FY26E even with oursales volume assumption of 0.5mn units.Webelieve its recent share price rally has pushed its valuation to a fair level. 2Q25 earnings largely in line.NIO’s revenue in 2Q25 was about 5%higher than our prior forecast amid slightly higher average selling price andR&D services.GPM of 10%during the periodwas about 0.2ppts higherthan our projection. R&D expenses were about RMB200mn higher thanour forecast, mainly due to organizational optimization charges. SG&Aexpenses were about RMB350mn lower thanour forecast. Accordingly, itsnet loss of RMB5.1bn in 2Q25 was about RMB300mn lower than our priorprojection. China Auto We expect 4Q25Enet lossto narrowsignificantlybut not to breakeven yet.Management laid out key assumptions for 4Q25 non-GAAP netprofit breakeven:unit sales of0.15mn, vehicle GPM of 16-17%, non-GAAPR&D expenses of RMB2bn,andSG&A ratio of 10%.We acknowledgemanagement’s cost reduction efforts, which was partially reflected in 2Q25.However, we are not convinced with its OnvoL90’s 20% GPM target, givenits aggressive pricing, especially when compared to the OnvoL60’s GPM.We raise our FY25E sales volume forecast to 0.345mn units with 4Q25Ebeing 0.158mn units, andproject vehicle GPM to be 15.7% in 4Q25E. Wealso do not expect SG&A expenses to remain the same as 2Q25 whensales volume is to be more than doubled. Therefore, we expect GAAP netlossofRMB1.6bn and non-GAAP net loss of RMB1bn in 4Q25E.Investors should not overlook competition in FY26E.We are of the view that we could not draw a linear extrapolation on NIO’s sales volumein FY26E, based on its 4Q25 figures, as other automakers could launchnew models with even more aggressive pricing. Even as we project NIO’sFY26E sales volume to be 0.5mn units, we still expect NIO to post aGAAPnet loss of RMB7.8bn in FY26E. We believe NIO’s three-brand strategy,heavy investments in NIO House, battery swap, chips and even mobilephones,would requirea higher sales volume threshold for breakeven.Valuation/Key risks.We maintain our HOLD rating but raise target price from US$4.00 to US$7.00, based on 0.9x our FY26E P/S (prior 0.8x FY25).We believe such valuation is fair given both Li Auto (LIUS/2015 HK, BUY)and Leapmotor (9863 HK, BUY) are now trading at slightly lower than 0.9x,with much better profitability than NIO. Key risks to our rating and targetprice include higher or lower sales volume and margins than we expect, aswell as a sector re-rating or de-rating. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the codeof conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s)covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852)3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual inve