衡量经济韧性

Measuring economic resilience Acknowledgements Key messages • • • • AcknowledgementsKey messagesIntroduction 1.Resilience and development3 2.Framework A.Guiding principlesB.Defining economic resilienceC.VulnerabilitiesD.Coping capacities 77810 3.Data sources and methodology 4.Main results Conclusion27 References 29 List of figuresFigure 1.Economic Resilience Index framework 8Figure 2.Recovery versus adaptation: two pathways to resilient development11Figure 3.Economic Resilience Index score categories19Figure 4.The most resilient and vulnerable economies in 202321Figure 5.Economic Resilience Index scores by region: coping capacities and vulnerabilities, 202322Figure 6.Economic Resilience Index scores by income group: coping capacities and vulnerabilities, 202323Figure 7.Correlation between Economic Resilience Index score and GDP per capita, 202324Figure 8.Correlation between coping capacities and vulnerabilities indices, 202325 Introduction 1.Resilience and development Economic resilience, defined by various organizations and scholars “...is decomposed into two components:instantaneous resilience, which is the ability tolimit the magnitude of the immediate loss ofincome for a given amount of capital losses, anddynamic resilience, which is the ability toreconstruct and recover quickly...”–The WorldBank (2016) “…encompasses the ability to minimise potentialvulnerabilities, to promote more robust andinclusive growth, to enhance the capacity of themacro-economy to withstand shocks andreallocate resources to harness new growthopportunities.“-Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (2014) “... the policy-induced ability of an economy to withstand or recover from the negative impacts of shocks”–Briguglio and others (2009) 11.OECD, 2014.12.United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2017; United Nations, 2021.13.FAO 2016; Food Security Information Network,2016.14.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2022;United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction,2015.15.Briguglio, 2016.16.UNDP, 2013; Aldrich 2012; Manyena, 2014.17.IMF, 2019.18.Briguglio, 2009; Briguglio, 2016.19.United Nations, 2021. A.Guiding principles • • B.Defining economic resilience •• •• C.Vulnerabilities • 1.International trade • • • 2.International financial flows • • • D.Coping capacities • 1.Social capacity 52.Resilience in ecological systems emphasizesthe ability to maintain and return to stabilityin the now seminal works of Holling(1973, 1996). In this definition, multiple equilibria can exist. Recovery entails a return to equilibrium (stability), but itdoes nothave to be the old equilibrium. In economic terms, a shock can mean a movement to a newpath all together (Cross 1993,Setterfield 2010).53.Briguglio, 2016; Algan and others 2021; Afolabi and Raifu, 2024.54.Acemoglu and Robinson, 2012; Duflo, 2012; Ostry and others, 2014; Rodrik, 2014; Stiglitz, 2012; UNDP, 2014. 2.Economiccapacity ••• 4.Institutionalcapacity 3.Fiscalcapacity •• • 3.Data sources and methodology •value−minmax−min • • • •• 4.Main results Conclusion Acemoglu, Daron, and James Robinson(2012).WhyNationsFail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: CrownPublishing Group.Acosta, Pablo, and others(2009).What is the impact of international remittances on poverty and inequality in Latin America?WorldDevelopment,vol.36, No.1 (January), pp.89–114.Afolabi, Joshua, and IsiakaRaifu(2024).Toward economic resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of institutional quality andhuman capital development.Wiley Online Library.Agosin, Manuel, and Franklin Huaita(2012).Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops.Journal ofInternational Money and Finance,vol.31, No. 5 (September), pp. 818–844.Aitken, Brian, and Ann Harrison(1999).Do domestic firms benefit from direct foreign investment? Evidence from Venezuela.American Economic Review, vol.89, No. 3 (June), pp.605–618.Aldrich, Daniel(2012).Building Resilience: Social Capital in Post-Disaster Recovery. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Alfaro, Laura,Sebnem Kalemli-Ozan, and Volosovych Vadym(2009).Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? Anempirical investigation.The Review of Economics and Statistics,vol.9, No.2(May), pp.347–368.Algan, Yann, and others(2021).Boosting Social and Economic Resilience in Europe by Investing in Education. Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union.Young, Allyn(1928).Increasing returns and economic progress.The Economic Journal,vol. 38, No. 152 (December), pp.527–542.Barrett, Christopher, and others(2021).A Scoping Review of the Development Resilience Literature: Theory, Methods and EvidenceAnnual Review of Environment and Resources, 46:677-696.Becken, Susanne, and JamesLennox(2012).Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism.Tourism Management,vol.33. No.1 (February), pp.133–142.Blattman, Christopher,Jason Hwang,andWilliamson G. Jeffrey