大宗商品市场洞察：碳酸锂、玻璃及股指期货

Morning Insight:September 1, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Fell sharply again due to Yongxing Materials’safetyproduction license renewal, with the assessment benchmark price higherthan the nearby-month contract price, down 2,070 yuan/ton week-on-week to+2,650 yuan/ton. We expect lithium carbonate prices to be supported byspot prices in the short term and remain in high-level oscillation, butto correct in the long term. In September, the production halt at Yichun lithium mines is only nowentering the substantive deep-water stage in terms of impact on output.Coupled with previously low overseas import shipments, lithium prices areexpected to remain in a high-level oscillation pattern for more than amonth. Looking at overseas shipments to China: in August, Australian mines wereflat, Chile was lower than July levels, Mali had no shipments, Zimbabweincreased to previous highs, and Nigeria maintained high shipmentvolumes. Going forward, as downstream demandgrowth slows and overseasimported resources gradually arrive at ports, lithium carbonate priceswill enter a downward trend. Glass:Short-term still weak. Last week, the September contract saw large-scale short-term shortsqueeze near the delivery month, driving a brief rebound in the market,but spot market demand was average and failed to drive overallimprovement, and prices fell back again in the Fridaynight session. From a medium-term perspective, the high premium of the January contractremains the core factor restricting market upside. At present, realestate has not shown significant improvement, and downstream processingplants also have not seen a clear increasein orders. With spot demandunlikely to improve significantly in the short term, the January contractpremium is close to 15%, making valuation relatively high. Of course, it should also be noted that the long side currently hasseveral potential trading logics that are reasonable. On one hand, realestate demand usually improves in the fourth quarter, and recentlypolicies have again emphasized promoting stabilization in the real estatesector. On the other hand, some institutions believe that enthusiasm inthe stock market will in the future be transmitted to leading glassindustry stocks. Revaluation logic, anti-deflation, anti-involution,narrowing China–US interest rate spreads, and policy emphasis onstabilizing real estate all constitute a series of optimistic factors forthe future, meaning that further shorting at times when the basis is flatrequires caution. In summary, short-term weak, medium-term oscillating market. Index Futures:Possibility of moving higher amid oscillation. Last week the market saw a certain pullback. We believe the currentdrivers of the market still lie in both internal and external variables,including the direction of domestic policy and changes in the externalenvironment. This week, major domestic policy events will be released,and in the short term there may be concerns over some decline in marketstabilization efforts, but we still believe the more core factor ispolicy’s stance on preventing financial risks after the market’s upwardslope has steepened. Over the weekend, the CSRC stated that it would“continue to consolidate the momentum of stabilization and improvement inthe capital market,”and there were no clear actions to prevent risks,which is favorable for stabilizing expectations. From a medium-term perspective, year-end policies setting the tone fornext year’s economic growth will further affect the extent of this roundof market movement. On the external side, last Friday U.S. tech stocks,especially the semiconductor sector, experienced some pullback, andattention should be paid to the transmission to related domestic sectors.In addition, U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released this week. As itrelates to the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut space, there may besome wait-and-see sentiment before the data release, though the overallimpact is expected to be limited. In conclusion, if both internal and external conditions remain calm, themarket is expected to show a slightly strong pattern amid oscillation inthe near term, and may further attempt to test the 4,000-point mark. Ifdisturbances from internal and external factors increase, the market isexpected to continue a horizontal oscillation at the current level. Relatively speaking, we believe the probability of the former scenario issomewhat higher. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sectorstood at 49.4 in August, up from 49.3 in the previous month, officialdata showed Sunday. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading