尿素周报：现货低价成交好转，港口累库速度加快

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1746元/吨（-7）；河南小颗粒市场价1720元/吨（+0）；山东小颗粒市场价1720元/吨（+10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1730元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-26元/吨（+17）；河南尿素基差-26元/吨（+7）；江苏尿素基差-16元/吨（+17）；尿素生产利润190.0元/吨（+10.0）；出口利润1270.7元/吨（-23.4）。供应端：截至2025-08-31，企业产能利用率81.70%（-2.28%）；企业厂内库存为108.6万吨（+6.2）；港口库存为59.4万吨（+9.3）。 需求端：截至2025-08-31，复合肥产能利用率39.22%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.50%（+11.9%）；尿素企业预收订单天数6.06日（+0.0）。 市场分析 近日厂家降价吸单，下游跟进谨慎，现货成交好转。目前部分地区农业秋季肥逐渐开始，工业需求复合肥、板厂等开工受阅兵影响下降，逢低采买，三聚氰胺本周开工上升，刚需采购，下游对高价货源仍有抵触情绪。尿素产量高位运行，9月山西固定床天泽、兰花产能技改，但8月安徽中能已投产，章丘日月、新疆新冀均已投产，装置尚不稳定，随着新增产能释放，中长期供应偏宽松。煤制尿素利润尚可，成本端支撑一般。8月9月仍为出口窗口期，尿素出口持续进行，集港节奏加快，港口库存累库速度加快。印度NFL发布尿素进口招标，投标将于9月2日截止，有效期至9月10日，最晚船期10月31日。本次招标意向要求东西海岸各自100万吨，关注出口动态变化。 策略 单边：中性；跨期：出口窗口期后UR01-05逢高反套；跨品种：无。 风险 装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB...................................................................