双边服务贸易：来自新数据库的见解（英）

Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Database Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao, and Robert ZymekWP/25/163 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working PaperResearch Department Bilateral Trade in Services:Insights from A New Database* Prepared by Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao, and Robert Zymek Authorized for distribution by Petia TopalovaAugust 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper introduces the Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database. It draws on a range ofsources to provide the broadest-possible, consistent coverage of bilateral services trade for the period 1985-2023. The database covers bilateral trade across 12 major services categories, 9 ofwhich are furtherdisaggregated into 26 distinct subcategories, all harmonized under a consistent BPM6 classification standard.While historical data is only available for some advanced economies and emerging markets, the bilateral flowscontained in BiTS capture most of global services trade from 2000 onwards. We illustrate the uses of this datathrough two research applications. The first shows that "gravity forces" have become less powerful in explainingservices trade patterns over time, due to a shift in the composition of trade towards less distance-sensitiveservices. The second documents that overall services trade remains resilient to growing geopolitical fissures, butthat modern services appear more sensitive to geopolitical alignment than traditional services. Bilateral Trade in Services:Insights from A New Database Prepared by Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao,and Robert Zymek 1Introduction The importance of cross-border trade in services to the global economy is growing. As shown inFigure 1, the value of services exports as percent of world GDP has more than doubled over the lastfour decades, from just 3.2 percent in 1985 to 7.4 percent in 2023. While goods trade still accountsfor the bulk of international trade, services trade has expanded faster relative to world GDP. Ithas also continued its advance since the Global Financial Crisis, defying the "slowbalization" ordeglobalization trends observed in goods trade (Baldwinet al., 2024). There are several further reasons to pay attention to services trade. First, recent developmentsin information and communications technology—accelerated by the pandemic—have made itpossible to trade services that were previously considered non-tradable, by "unbundling" ser-vice delivery from physical presence (Baldwin, 2016).Second, services trade offers substantialgrowth potential, especially for developing economies. In these countries, the services sector hasaccounted for two-thirds of total growth over the last three decades, yet much of this expansionhas been domestically driven rather than export-led (World Bank, 2024).1Understanding frictions that shape services trade may reveal new growth and diversification opportunities. Third, servicestrade is relevant for the interpretation of trade (im)balances, which have become a prominent con-cern for policy makers.Countries with a persistent trade deficit in goods, such as the UnitedStates, often run surpluses in services (Bozet al., 2019). This pattern may reflect both comparativeadvantages and asymmetries in trade barriers.2 Despite its growing importance, services trade remains under-researched, mainly because datasources are scarce and disjoint, especially forbilateral(source-destination) service trade flows. TheBilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) research database makes a contribution towards addressing thisgap. It draws on a range of sources to provide the broadest-possible, consistent coverage of bilat-eral services trade from 1985 to 2023. The coverage includes both total bilateral flows and flowsbroken down by detailed service categories, which are harmonized to make them consistent withthe sixth edition of the IMF Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual(BPM6). Moreover, BiTS is based only on officially reported bilateral trade statistics, without es-timated or interpolated values.3This makes it especially suitable for the estimation of gravityregressions of the kind commonly used in the analysis of goods trade. BiTS is assembled by combining data on officially reported bilateral trade flows from four mainsources: the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services (BaTIS) Database, the UNCTAD-WTO Tradein Services Database (henceforth "the UNCTA