欧洲汽车工业处于十字路口：通过欧盟电动汽车领导力和雄心勃勃的支持政策确保投资和就业

Europe’s automotiveindustry at a crossroads Securing investment and jobs through EU electric vehicleleadership and ambitious supporting policies T&E Published: July 2025 Author: Julia Poliscanova, Luca PoggiModelling: Luca Poggi, Michael Carron, Yoann Gimbert Editeur responsable: William Todts, Executive Director© 2021 European Federation for Transport and Environment AISBL To cite this reportT&E (2025). Europe’s Automotive Industry at a Crossroads Further information Luca PoggiSenior Data AnalystT&Eluca.poggi@transportenvironment.orgwww.transportenvironment.org|LinkedIn Acknowledgements The authors kindly acknowledge the external peer review by ChargeUp Europe, E-Mobility Europe,IndustriAll Europe and RECHARGE. Thefindings and views put forward in this publication are thesole responsibility of the authors listed above. Executive summary The automotive industry and its supply chain are undergoing an unprecedented industrialtransformation from vehicles running on combustion engines to electric cars powered bybatteries, motors and chargers. The global competition to onshore these clean technologies isimmense, and Europe’s success hinges on the market and industrial policies adopted today. This new research by T&E shows that Europe must urgently establish global electric carleadership to sustain economic value and create new jobs across its automotive value chainand surrounding industries, such as batteries and charging. Amongthe three possible scenarios designed for this study, Europe’s best possibility tomaintain the economic contribution of its automotive value chain requires keeping the integrityof its 2035 CO2zero-emission car goal, combined with strengthened industrial and demandpolicies to make local manufacturing attractive and accelerate electric vehicle uptake. This package of actions can - if comprehensively delivered and all other things being equal: ●Help recover car production levels thanks to increased EV manufacturing and demand,reaching 15.2 million units by 2030 and 16.8 million by 2035. This would translate intokeeping the current automotive job levels in the next decade.●Secure over 900 GWh of battery manufacturing and over 100,000 new jobs in the sectorby the end of the decade,flanked by a growing cathode active material industry andlithium refining in Europe.●Increase the charging industry’s economic output almost fivefold to€79 billion,creating 120,000 jobs by 2035. Walking back from 2035 and no industrial policy risks leading toautomotive industrial decline The scenario where the EU walks back from its 2035 goal and fails to deliver adequateindustrial policy action would see the strongest decline in car production, jobs and economicvalue, as local EV demand dampens while foreign car and battery manufacturers grow theirtechnology lead and export into Europe. In this scenario, Europe will see: ●A further decline in automotive value-added of €90 billion by 2035 and the loss of up to1 million jobs compared to 2025.●A loss of two-thirds of the planned battery investments and jobs,primarily byhomegrownEuropean companies,with knockdown effects on adjacent batterycomponent, mineral processing and recycling industries.●A loss of €20 million in charging market value in 2035 alone, with a cumulative loss inthe charging industry of €125 billion over the 10 years. Only making Europe’s electric car industrial leadership a priority across climate and industrialpolicies will help maintain the automotive sector’s overall economic contribution, minimise joblosses from the global shift away from the combustion engine and secure new quality jobs inthe strategic sectors dependent on Europe’s EV demand. Achieving this requires: 1Maintaining the 2030-2035 car CO2targets in the upcoming regulatoryreview,flanked by EU-wide measures to support demand. 2Introducing production aid for EV batteries in both EU and nationalfunding streams, alongside incentives to source EU-made componentsand materials. 3Implementing the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation andelectricity market reforms and grids action plans to speed up chargerroll-out and grid connections and permitting. 4Mainstreaming social conditionality for quality jobs, and strengtheningtechnology and skills transfer provisions in foreign direct investment. 1. Introduction The automotive industry, and particularly car production, has historically been a foundation ofthe European economy. T&E estimates that the business contributes around €330 billion to theEuropean GDP, and more than 3 million people are employed, directly or indirectly, in the car orcomponents manufacturing sector. Nonetheless, their internal combustion engines continue tobe a significant source of pollution, emitting 452 Mt CO₂ in the EU in 2023 alone (approximately10% of total emissions), underscoring the urgent need to transition to electric vehicles. AsEurope stands at the crossroads of a low-carbon transition, the automotive sector’scontribution to GDP