中国年中经济报告：坚定不移，稳中求进

August 2025 First half (H1) of 2025: Stable economicperformance with consumption as key growthdriver Steady momentum with solid progress:In H1,China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by5.3% year-on-year (YoY), with final consumptionexpenditure contributing 52%1to overalleconomic growth. The acceleratedimplementation of “anti-involution” policies isexpected to restore supply-demand equilibriumin some industries, thereby reinforcing therecovery of endogenous growth drivers. Resilient consumption and structuralupgrades supported by policy:In H1, totalretail sales of consumer goods reachedRMB24.5 trillion, marking a 5.0% YoY increase2.The “trade-in” initiative across five majorcategories generated RMB1.6 trillion in sales,surpassing the full-year total for 2024 andsignaling continued structural improvements inconsumption. Navigating external headwinds in foreign tradewith a focus on green and innovative exports:In H1, China’s total goods trade reachedRMB21.8 trillion and saw a 2.9% YoY increase3.Exports of high-tech products by privateenterprises witnessed a 12.5% growth4, driving ashift from scale-based expansion to a modelemphasizing technology and branding. Investment growth shows volatility, realestate remains a key challenge:In H1, fixedasset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8%YoY5. While manufacturing and infrastructureinvestment may improve marginally in Q3 withpolicy support, real estate investment isexpected to remain subdued given the ongoingtransformation. Second half (H2) of 2025: Coordinated efforts tostabilize growth and optimize structure Enhancing policy flexibility and foresight toaddress external uncertainty:Fiscal measuressuch as special-purpose bonds and ultra-longspecial treasury bonds will continue to supportinfrastructure investment. Structural monetarypolicies and policy-based financial instrumentswill be further leveraged to promotetechnological innovation, boost consumption,support small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) and stabilize foreign trade. Accelerating incremental policies to boostconsumption and cultivating new growthdrivers in services:A dual-engine framework of“supply optimization + demand activation” isbeing developed. Three key growth areas includedigital lifestyle services, integrated cultural-sports-tourism offerings and enhancedinternational service accessibility. Advancing hard tech and artificial intelligence(AI) to drive quality transformation:China’s“AI+” initiative has entered a new phase ofscaled, commercialized and ecosystem-drivendevelopment. In H2, A-share IPOs are expectedto focus on technological innovation, with hardtech sectors becoming central to mergers andacquisitions (M&As) activities. Deepening the construction of a unifiednational market and managing overcapacity inkey industries:Regulatory efforts will targetemerging sectors and mid-to-downstreammanufacturing with high private enterpriseparticipation. Tailored policies are required tobalance profitability improvements withstructural employment stability. Building new foreign trade models on afoundation of stability:Resilient high-techexports and deeper integration with diversifiedmarkets will be key to navigating futureuncertainties. Reforms to integrate domesticand foreign trade and promotion of cross-bordere-commerce remain priorities. Leveraging urban renewal to foster a newdevelopment model of “market + affordablehousing”:Governments will intensify efforts inurban renewal, affordable housing andacquisition of idle land through special-purposebonds. High-value lifestyle services will stimulatedemand across the real estate value chain,exploring new opportunities in the era of stock-based development. H1: Stable economic performance with consumption as key growth driver Amid rising external volatilities, China’s economy sustained its stable trajectory in H1 2025. GDP reached RMB66 trillion,reflecting a 5.3% YoY increase. Consumption expenditure contributed 52%6to overall economic growth, underscoring its roleas the primary engine of demand recovery. From a structural perspective, the economy demonstrated robust progress. Thevalue-added output of core industries in the digital economy reached 10% of the GDP7, highlighting the growing significanceof innovation-driven sectors. While monthly indicators in June, such as consumption and investment, showed slightfluctuations, the accelerated implementation of “anti-involution” policies is expected to restore supply-demand equilibrium insome industries, thereby reinforcing the recovery of endogenous growth drivers. Front-loading exports bolster industrial growth, while endogenous drivers still need strengthening.In H1, the valueadded by industrial enterprises above the designated size saw a 6.4% YoY increase, with equipment manufacturing serving asthe primary pillar of growth. The rebound in external demand contributed to a marginal acceleration in industrial output inJune, with value-added growth in sectors such as automo