宏观观察：聚焦杰克逊霍尔会议

All eyes on Jackson Hole The market expects a September rate cut. We do not. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US •All eyes are focused on the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Scott Bessent’s recentdovish rate comments - compounded by two dissenting votes at the July FOMC meeting,softpayroll numbers and a surprise pick for the Fed – have led markets to price in aSeptember rate cut. We disagree. Despite sharp downward revisions to jobs data, recentdevelopments in unemployment and inflation are unlikely toshiftPowell's stancesignificantly. Although we see the September meeting as a close call, we maintain our viewof a single 25bp cut in December. Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK •The UK labour market is showing some early signs of stabilisation: employmentcontraction has eased, unemployment appears to have peaked, and earnings growth isslowing. We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.7% y/y. Barclays UK Spend Trendssignals show consumer spending over the past four weeks is up 2.4% y/y. •In China, data diverged. Government bond issuance supported total social financing, butprivate credit demand slumped and retail sales slowed materially in July. CPI narrowlyavoided deflation, while PPI came in weaker than expected. We continue to forecastbelow-consensus GDP growth of 4.5% for 2025. We expect growth momentum to moderatefrom 4.1% q/q saar in Q2 to 1.5% in Q3, before recovering to 2.5% in Q4 as incrementalpolicy stimulus kicks in. •In Brazil, the possibility of economic change is anchoring local markets. A clearshiftinpower could trigger an overshoot in rates, though a delicate fiscal inheritance may limit theupside. •"Major global uncertainty indices faded risks induced by the start of the war in Ukraine…currently there seems to be no global war-related premia in financial markets." -MarekRaczko, inWar in Ukraine: Positioning for a change Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.Completed: 18-Aug-25, 09:36 GMTReleased: 18-Aug-25, 09:37 GMTRestricted - External Weekly Research Highlights Not so fast Market pricing suggests at least a 25bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. However, despitethe sharp downward revisions to the jobs data, unemployment and inflation developments maynot change Powell's recent stance much. We retain our call for a December cut as we awaitguidance from Jackson Hole. FIGURE 1. Taylor-type rules suggest rates are not particularly restrictive Note: The figure shows the midpoint of the federal funds target range (dark blue); Barclays baseline funds rate projection(light blue); and predictions from simple Taylor-type rules that express the policy rate as a function of core PCE inflation,the unemployment rate, an estimate of the neutral real interest rate, and the prior month's federal funds rate. Rule-basedprojections use Barclays baseline projections for inflation and the unemployment rate. The estimate of r* used here isbased on 6mma of 5y5y forward TIPS yields with projected values assumed to gradually decline toward 1.5%.Source: BLS, BEA, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Barclays Research War in Ukraine: Positioning for a change Our analysis shows that CEE FX and EUR contain only small risk premia for the war, but CEErates seem to entail significant premia. We expect a knee-jerk support for EUR and CEE FX, but amore persistent rally in CEE rates. UK Macro: Alt-data chart pack Our new chart pack brings insights from various alt-data sources, shining additional light on thestate of the UK economy. The overall message is one of slightly improved spending, and asoftbut stabilising labour market. Barclays Key Macro Views US Outlook •Our economists retain their expectation for the FOMC to hold rates in the September meetingdespite markets seemingly confident of a cut. Fed voters remain divided despite downwardrevisions to job estimates