2025年上半年肯尼亚房地产市场研究报告

H1 2025 knightfrank.com/research Knight Frank’s ultimate guide to real estate market performance andopportunities in Kenya. O V E R V I E W 4.5% Projected Growthin GDP for 2025 Inflation remains withinCBK’s 2.5% - 7.5%target range Office occupanciesincrease by 5% Kenya’s real estate and economic landscape in the first half of 2025 reflects a market intransition, balancing resilience with evolving challenges. The office sector demonstrated steady demand, while prime residential markets-maintained stability despite shifting developer focus toward middle-income segments.After a period of rapid growth following the Covid-19-induced slump, the hospitalitysector’s expansion has now stabilized to pre-pandemic levels. Decelerated growth inprime residential prices The retail sector faced headwinds from subdued consumer spending, prompting strategicadaptations. Infrastructure development advanced through public-private partnerships, signallinglong-term growth potential. Meanwhile, alternative asset classes emerged as bright spots,driven by institutional investments in education, healthcare, and affordable housing. Footfall reduces inmalls Sustained confidence inhospitality sector growth M A C R OE C O N O M Y Global growth is slowing down, driven byrising trade barriers and heightened policyuncertainty. Growth is projected to declinefrom 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - itsweakest rate since the 2008 global recession -with most economies expected to decelerate.Downside risks will continue to dominatethe global outlook. Persistent trade policyuncertainty and renewed tensions couldfurther suppress trade, investment, andconfidence, weakening global demand. however, the sector shows signs of recoverywith cement production and consumptionincreasing by 13.9% and 20.3%, respectively, inQ1 2025, compared to a similar period in 2024. Economic growth in Sub-Sahara Africa(SSA) is expected to rise from 3.5% in 2024 to3.7% in 2025, averaging 4.2% in 2026/2027.However, high debt, elevated interest rates,and reduced donor support have limitedfiscal space, driving consolidation efforts.Key risks include political instability, risingdebt distress, and climate shocks. Kenya’s GDP grew by 4.7% in 2024, downfrom 5.7% in 2023. Its outlook, predicting agrowth rate of 4.5% and 4.9% in 2025 and2026 respectively, mirrors SSA’s, with similardownside risks compounded by politicalunrest and disruptive demonstrations,particularly in Nairobi, which threaten thecountry’s business environment. As a non-resource-rich country, Kenyahas developed a broadly diversifiedeconomy that is not dependent on naturalresource extraction. It functions as a keyregional business hub, hosting numerousinternational NGOs and multinationalcorporations (MNCs), with Nairobisupporting a large and growing workingpopulation. These dynamics provide a strongfoundation for a potentially vibrant realestate and construction sector. However,over the past six years, growth in thesesectors has remained limited. Agricultureremains the backbone of the economy,contributing 21.65% to GDP between 2019and 2024, while real estate and constructionaccounted for 8.79% and 6.72% respectively.The trend is similar to what was observed inQ1 2025 where agriculture, real estate andconstruction contributed 25.69%, 8.28%, and6.14%, respectively, to the GDP. In 2024, the construction sector contractedby 0.7%, after recording a 3% growth in 2023.This decline aligns with reduced cementproduction and consumption, despite aslight rise in the value of approved buildingplans. The divergence originates from aspeculative market, and a sector facingdelays due to cash flow challenges amida tough economic environment. In 2025, C A P I TA LM A R K E T S Despite a slowdown in 2024, Kenya’seconomy has shown resilience. To spurgrowth, the Central Bank gradually loweredthe central bank rate from 11.25% in Januaryto 9.75% in June 2025, with commerciallending rates falling from 16.89% in Januaryto 15.65% in June 2025. In H1, 2025, inflationremained within the CBK’s 2.5% - 7.5%target range, indicating continued economicstability amid global challenges. investors are willing to reallocate capital, butonly to alternative opportunities backed bysound fundamentals, strong governance, andcompetitive returns. tourism, local businesses, and GDP, setting aprecedent for future asset-backed real estatedevelopments in the region. Africa saw a record 75% rise in foreign directinvestments (FDI), from USD 55.4 billionin 2023 to circa USD 97 billion in 2024,driven by a mega infrastructure project inEgypt. Excluding that, inflows still grew12%, supported by investment reforms andimproved facilitation across the continent.Despite this, Kenya’s FDI remained relativelystable at USD 1.503 billion for 2024. An example of this is the Linzi 003Infrastructure Asset-Backed Security(ABS) - issued by Linzi FinCo 003 Trustthat successfully raised KES 44.791 billion(≈$340 million) to finance the constructionof the Talanta S