预计2025年下半年将达成两项大规模业务拓展交易

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) Twomorelarge-scale BDdealsanticipated in 2H25 Management expects a recovery in product sales in 2H25. CSPCreported total revenue of RMB13.3bn in 1H25, includingRMB1.08mnfromout-licensing(BD)income.Excluding BD contributions,core revenuereached RMB12.2bn, down 25% YoY and 4% HoH, representing 44% ofour prior FY25 estimate and broadly in line with expectations. In 2Q25, corerevenue declined by 6% QoQ (or-22% YoY), primarily due to continuedsoftness in NBP sales, impacted bytighter hospital prescription controls,and the implementation of volume-based procurement (VBP) for Duomeisuand Jinyouli. Management anticipates a sequential recovery in 2H25, withproduct sales to grow by at least 5% HoH. On the cost side, sellingexpenses fell 18% YoY to RMB3.0bn in 1H25,reflecting reduced marketingintensity post-VBP execution.Attributable net profit reached RMB2.5bn,representing 45% of our previous full-year FY25 forecast.Twoadditionallarge-scale BDdealsexpected in 2H25.Since late 2024, Target PriceHK$12.11(Previous TPHK$10.08)Up/Downside15.2%Current PriceHK$10.51 China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Andy WANG(852) 3657 6288andywang@cmbi.com.hk theCompany has secured six out-licensingdealsacross a diverse range ofassets, including lipoprotein(a), MAT2A inhibitor, ROR1 ADC, oral GLP-1,irinotecan liposome, and recently, an AI-powered small molecule discoveryplatform licensed to AstraZeneca(dealsizeover US$5bn).Managementguidesfor twomorelarge-scaleBDdeals in 2H25, each expected to exceedUS$5bn in value-one is EGFR ADC,andthe otherwillbe a platform-basedout-licensing.In addition to its small molecule platform,CSPC hasestablisheda broad set of proprietary technology platforms spanningnanoparticle formulations,ADCs,siRNA,and antibody/fusion proteins.Management highlights a robust pipeline of 40–50 assets withBDpotential,in which we thinkthathigh-profile candidatesmayincludeEGFR ADC, PD-1/IL-15bsAb, GFRALmAb, ActRIImAb, and B7-H3 ADC.We expect CSPCto generate a sustainable stream of BD income over the medium to longterm. Stock Data EGFR ADC (SYS6010):anear-term BDcatalyst.SYS6010is currently inglobal Ph3 development. In China, two pivotal studies are ongoing: a Ph3trialcomparing SYS6010 to chemotherapy in 2L EGFR TKI–resistantNSCLC, and a Ph1b/3 trial evaluating SYS6010 + osimertinib vs osimertinibalone in 1L EGFR-mutant NSCLC, with the Ph3 portion tostartbyend-2025.The Company is also indiscussionwith CDE regarding the initiation ofSYS6010in 2L+ EGFR wild-type NSCLC,withadditionalPh3 trials in ESCCand HNSCC in plan.In the US, CSPC plansto achieve FPI fortwo Ph3 trialsin 2H25: one in 3L+EGFR-mutant NSCLC (ORR as primary endpoint), andthe otherin 2L+ EGFR wild-type NSCLC, including IO-resistant patients,comparing SYS6010 to docetaxel.SYS6010 monohasdemonstrated anencouragingmPFS of 7.6 months in EGFR-mutant nsq-NSCLC patientspost-TKI and chemotherapyin its China Ph1 study.Notably, in five IO-resistant EGFR wild-type NSCLC patients with moderate to high EGFRexpression, SYS6010(4.8mg/kg)achieved an 80% ORR (4/5 PRs).Maintain BUY.CSPC’sBDdealswillbe a keysustainabledriver ofearnings Source: FactSet growth.Considering the positivecontributionof BD deals,wereviseour TPfromHK$10.08to HK$12.11(WACC9.15%, terminal growth 2.0%). Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered inthis research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock withpotential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmarkover next 12 m