1H25：1个稳健的PM搭配5S VAS驱动转换；目标在FY26前纳入港股通

1H25:1Robust PM with 5S VAS drivershifting;TargetingHKConnect inclusion by FY26 TheCompany’sNPgrew 12.2%YoY in 1H25,well above our projected industryLSDgrowth. Total revenue rose 22.7% YoY, with basic PM up 27.9% supportedby robust GFA growth (+19%) on lower exit rates, higher collection rates andfee hikes. 5S VASrevenue grew 32% YoY, amid a driver shift from harddecoration to soft decoration&community living services. Non-owner VAS wasthe key drag: revenuewasdown 15% YoY, and its 8.3ppt gross margin droppulled overall margin down 3.1ppt YoY (trend may persist). We trimTPby 3%to HK$31.79,toreflect minor earnings revision.TheNew TPis based on13x2025E P/E(unchanged).MaintainBUY. Target PriceHK$31.79(Previous TPHK$32.86)Up/Downside27.6%Current PriceHK$24.92 China PropertyManagement Miao ZHANG(852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk Robustbasic PM.PM revenue rose 27.9% YoY, supported by steadymanaged-GFA growth (+19%), a 0.55ppt improvement in the collection rate,and higheravg.PMfees (1H25: RMB 4.20/sqm/month vs. 1H24: RMB 4.17).These positives stem from: 1)proactiveexitsfromlow-quality projects overthe past 2-3 years (terminationrates: FY23: 4.5%, FY24: 5.2%; declined to0.8% in 1H25 vs. 1.7% in 1H24)(Figure 2),indicating subpar projects arelargely resolved; 2) 14.1% fee hikes in 10 projects during 1H25 amidheadwinds, reflecting limited impact of fee caps on high-end compounds.SegmentGPmargin dropped 1.5pptYoY, mainly from higher costsfromaging projects.Additionally, mandatory social securitypaymentmay exertfurther pressure on margins,although new project deliveries from theparentcoareexpected to support margin improvement.5S VAS: growth drivershifting.The segment’s growth is shifting from hard Stock Data Shareholding Structure GREATDRAGON VENTURESLTD45.9%HAOYU VENTURES LTD12.9%Source: Bloomberg decoration to soft decoration and communitylivingservices. Youjubiz(oncehard decoration-driven) loggedFY22-24 revenue CAGR of 183%, but 1H25growth slowed to 36.7% (hard decoration +34.4%, soft decoration +503%).Withparentco’s deliveries of large flat floor projects(hard decorationdemand)set to drop, the company will step upefforts in soft decoration,second-hand housing renovationetc.Moreover, Youxiangbiz(owner VAS)accelerated to 42% growth in 1H25 (vs. 13%/9%in 1H24/FY24),signallinghigher penetration in in-home, communitylivingservices.70%pay-out ratio;target Stock Connectinclusionby FY26E: Payout ratio rose 10ppt from 1H24 to 70%in 1H25, matching FY24’s level. Thecompany noted potential for further hikes ahead. Ithasalso set a Hong KongStock Connect inclusion target, aiming to achieve this by FY26E. Source: FactSet Maintain BUY.Trim TP 3% to HK$31.79 on minor earnings revision, stillon13x 2025E P/E.Risks: 1) Slower5SVAS growth; 2)higher-than-expectedmargin pressure from social security policy; 3)weak third-party expansion. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in wholeor in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or hercompensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by TheHong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this researchreport 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852)3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may