《经济周刊》在房地产市场发生了根本性变化

22 August 2025 Richard de Chazal, CFArdechazal@williamblair.com+44 20 7868 4489 Economics WeeklyHas Something Fundamental Changedin the Housing Market? William Blair The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) isnormally not a joyous bunch even at the best of times, andits August survey results suggest that its mood has con-tinued to darken. The Homeowners Sentiment Index fellto 32—the lowest level since December 2022 (a readingabove/below 50 marks expansion/contraction in senti-ment). Nevertheless, this is not the message we are seeingfrom investors. The S&P Homebuilder Index has increasedby 32% since early June, against the S&P 500 Index upjust 8%.In thisEconomics Weekly,we discuss the cur-rent housing market and what may or may not havechanged to merit such a shift in market sentiment. The most recent Case-Shiller/S&P house price reading(for May) showed a third consecutive monthly decline,with a below-average annual rate of change of 3.3%(exhibit 2). Prices are also outright falling annually in 3 ofthe 20 major cities in the U.S. that were sampled (Tampa-2.4%, Dallas and San Francisco -0.6%). Prices increasedthe most in New York (7.4%) and Chicago (6.1%). I’ll Have Whatever They’re Having Whatever investors are reading in the tea leaves withregard to the housing market, the homebuilders are justnot seeing it, as indicated in exhibit 1. Instead, the NAHBindex has been in contraction territory for the last 16consecutive months, and the latest reading of 32 is one ofthe lowest in the last decade. Returning to exhibit 1, most of the surge in stock marketsentiment around the homebuilders—just like dur-ing 2024—is being built solely on the back of expectedfuture rate cuts. As the exhibit highlights, that episode turned out to be aclassic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event. The relativeperformance started to increase in July 2024, and its peak(September 19) perfectly coincided with the Fed’s firstrate cut (September 18). Conversely, the NAHB sentimentindex only started to rise when the actual cutting beganin September 2024 and then peaked four months later inJanuary 2025. The chart, therefore, suggests that very similar riskscould arise today, unless something more fundamentalhas changed in the housing market. The homebuilders continue to cite the usual list of griev-ances, including falling demand due to what they see asonerously high interest rates and excessive regulationpreventing the development of new land and new builds.In fact, the latest NAHB survey indicates just how badthe situation is: 37% of homebuilders are being forced tolower their prices, and those prices are being lowered onaverage by 5% (the same rate since last November). Fur-thermore, the use of sales incentives (buydowns or teaserrates) increased to 66% in August from 62% in July and isat the highest percentage in the post-COVID period. William Blair Supply-Side Changes? Over the last several years, the homebuilders have had arelatively open field in terms of limited competition fromexisting homeowners who were reluctant to move for fearof losing their existing low mortgage rates, as shown inexhibit 3. While existing homeowners for the most part have beenwilling and able to wait it out, life also happens (marriag-es, divorces, births, deaths, employment changes, etc.).They can only stay on the sidelines for so long before theyare forced to move. Exhibit 6 suggests that the inventoryof existing homes available for sale has been rising, butsellers are seemingly still demanding too high a price, asactual sales remain incredibly depressed (exhibit 7). The homebuilders took full advantage of this by rampingup construction (exhibit 4). Unfortunately, this coincidedwith the Fed taking up interest rates to quell inflationand a subsequent collapse in affordability (exhibit 5). Asa result, the builders’ inventory began to soar and is nowthe highest since 2022, and prior to that during the globalfinancial crisis. William Blair construction industry—when building fewer homes, thereis less need for workers to build them (exhibits 9 and 10). Without any palpable lowering of interest rates or adramatic improvement in employment and income toincrease affordability, price is the factor being forced toabsorb the pressure and help clear the market. Though,again, so far only the homebuilders have been makingthese adjustments and existing homeowners less so(exhibit 8). Tightened immigration controls could also be one possiblecontributing reason for the sharp decline in the New Ten-ant Repeat Rent Index (exhibit 11). While the suspiciouslylarge 9.3% decline will certainly be revised higher in thecoming quarters, the direction of travel for new rentalprices is likely to have been the same. What happens goingforward will depend in part on the level of vacancies. While selling prices are falling at one end, costs are in-creasing for the builders at the other end, on the back ofthe tariff changes and supply-chain disruptions. What wasnota