政府仍然是医疗人工智能应用的主要驱动力

Governmentremains theprimarydrivingforceof medical AI applications Target PriceHK$143.59(Previous TPHK$166.69)Up/Downside36.9%Current PriceHK$104.90 Xunfei Healthcare reported mixed 1H25 results.G-end business revenueincreased87% YoYto RMB141mn, and accounted for 30.4% of our full-yearforecast, exceeding the historical average of ~28%.B-endrevenuecame underpressure, declining 10% YoYto RMB53mn.Total revenueincreased30%YoYtoRMB299mn.The operating efficiency continued to improve,with the SG&Aexpense ratiodown 7.5ppts and the R&D expense ratio falling by 20.7ppts,substantially narrowingthe net loss marginto 22% (-15.5pptsYoY).Wethinkmedical AI industryremains in an early stage,and demand volatility acrosssegments may weigh onthe Company’sgrowth. However,we believeitsbroad AIsolutionscoveringG-, B-, andC-end demandprovide diversification that canpartiallyoffsetsingle-segment swings, supporting resilientand rapidgrowth. China Healthcare Jill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Cathy WANG(852) 3916 1729cathywang@cmbi.com.hk G-end business delivered strong performance on policy tailwinds.Regional solutionsrevenue surged 178% YoYto RMB58mn, driven bythenationwidepromotion ofinfectious-disease surveillance platformsled by theChina CDC.Primary solutionsrevenueincreased52% YoYto RMB84mnthanksto the heightened requirements for chronic disease screening and riskassessment in primary care. However, the GPM dropped 5pptsmainly due to:1)lower pricing for primary solutions amid county/community coverageexpansion; and2)high costs for customized regionalsolutions. Weexpectmargin improvement asTo-Gsolutionsbecome more standardized. Stock Data B-endbusiness underperformed as hospitalsslowedprocurement of AIapplications.Thedramatic debutof DeepSeekearlierthis yearbriefly liftedhospitals’expectations for medical application. However,general-purposeLLMsstruggle to address clinical problems directly.A lack ofhealthcare-specific knowledge integration and AI agent tools hindered real-worlddeployment. Disappointment with near-term outcomes led to more cautious AIspending in hospitals.Compared to general-purpose LLMs,Xunfei SparkMedical Model istrained on medical data anda dedicated knowledge base,enabling hospital-specific models and medical AI agents withhigh accuracy.Thedata flywheel also continues to strengthen its technological edge.Therefore,we believethe Company’shospital solutions will stand out in thehospital AI upgrade trend. Based on the current order intake,managementexpects a gradualrecoveryin 2H25Eas implementationadvances. Solidgrowth onC-end.Patient management servicesrevenueincreased by10%YoY toRMB104mnin 1H25. Post-discharge patient managementandintelligent medical devicesdelivered strongperformance, with revenueup~50% and 30% YoY, respectively.Cloud Medical Imaging Platform, however,faced pricing pressuredue tothemedical service price reform. Source: FactSet Maintain BUY.Considering the challenging B-end business in 1H25,welowered our forecast of2024–2026Erevenue CAGRto27.9%(previously37.9%).We adjust our TP to HK$143.59 based on a 13x 2026E P/S,supported by comparable valuations for AI-enabled medical companies(asshown in Fig 2).Earnings Summary Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe researchanalyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respectto the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neitherthe analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issueof this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) have investment banking relationship with the issuers covered in this report in preceding 12 months. CMBIGM RatingsBUY HOLDSELLNOT RATED : Stock with potentialreturn of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchm