您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [招银国际]:表现超预期,股息收益率仍具吸引力 - 发现报告

表现超预期,股息收益率仍具吸引力

2025-08-20 Miao ZHANG 招银国际 王英杰
报告封面

Earnings beat against tough weather;Dividendyieldremainsattractive yield remains attractive Target PriceHK$29.88(Previous TPHK$40.01)Up/Downside15.2%Current PriceHK$25.94 Onewo’s1H25 core net profitrose10.8% YoY,outpacingour projected LSDgrowthof peers. The earnings beatsent its share price significantly higher by7.2%on 19 Aug.Core biz remained resilient amid challenges (rev. +11% YoY),supported by the Onewo Town strategy and flexible pricing system. Developer-linked revenue/GP contribution shrank to 2%, with negative impacts nearingatrough,in our view.During the period, dividend payout ratioremainedhigh at83%, translating to an attractive dividend yield of 7.2%. ReiterateBUYbut cutTP by 25%,mainly reflectingsubstantiallylowerearnings expectations givenintensifying industry headwinds. China Property ManagementMiao ZHANG(852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk Earningsbeatdriven byimprovingcore biz efficiency.Corenet profitgrew 10.8% YoY, outpacing our projected industry average of LSD.Totalrevenuewasup3.1% YoY, underpinned by resilient expansion incore biz-residentialPM(+10.4% YoY), commercialPM(+7.7% YoY), communityVAS (+39.6% YoY), and Bpasssegment(+9.0% YoY).Gross margins forthese segments declined only modestly (-0.4/+0.5/-6.8/+0.7 pptsYoY to12.9%/8.8%/22.3%/37.7%). Thetrends werenotably better than industryaverages, supported by: 1)continued rollout of theOnewo Townstrategy(optimized300Onewo Towns,accounting for 38.6% of total project undermanagement,adding RMB 230 mn grossprofitaccumulatively); and 2)flexible pricingsystemthat mitigated sector-wide fee cappressure.Projectsadopting this approachshowed improvement incollection rates by 20%,offsetting margin headwinds. These efforts contributed to 114 new projectwins in 1H25, driving a 31.5% increase in saturated contract revenue.Developers’drag nearing an end,positive on FY25 guidance. Developer-linked segments remained a headwind, with developer VAS andAIoT revenue down 76.1% and 66.2% respectively. Yet,their combinedshare of revenue/GPfell to 2.3%/1.9%in 1H25from 8.6%/6.2%in 1H24,signalingthatthe drag on overall finances is nearing an end. The companyguided full-year revenue growth to outpace 1H25 (>3.1%) and coreNPgrowth to exceed 10.8%.We view these targets as commendable forChina’stop property manager in terms of managed GFA andmarket-capamid intensifying competition,downward pressure on fee rate,and ongoingdeveloper risk resolution. High dividend pay-out maintained.Total dividend payout ratioremainedhigh at 83% of coreNPin 1H25 (vs. c.100% in 1H24/2H24). Theannualiseddividend pay-out representsayield of 7.2% in FY25E,stayingattractive.MaintainBUY.We cutTP by25% to HK$29.88, reflectingthe significant Source: FactSet downward revision onearnings expectations vs prior year amid deepeningindustry woes. Therevised TPimplies 20x 2025E PE.Risks: 1)larger-than-expected decline in collection rates; 2) underperformance in third-partyexpansion; 3) related-party transactions with the parentco. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content ofthis research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer;and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in thecode of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOTRATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel:(852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)