实打实的营收增长和盈利能力扩张可能在2026财年持续

Solid revgrowthand profitability expansionlikelyto sustain in FY26 Target PriceUS$226.80(Previous TPUS$229.70)Up/Downside24.9%Current PriceUS$181.56 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) announced4QFY25(Jul year-end) results: totalrevenue was up15.8% YoY to US$2.5bn,1.4% ahead of Bloomberg consensus,and non-GAAP net income reached US$673mn, up28.9% YoY and8% betterthan consensus.For FY25, total revenue grew14.9% YoY and non-GAAP netincome rose20.3% YoY.AI-related ARR reached c.US$545mn in4QFY25 andwas up 2.5 times YoY. We remain positive that PANW is one of the keybeneficiaries in the Gen-AI era as demand for security shouldgrowsteadilywithanincreasing scale in AI-related deployment.For FY26E, we are looking for14%/15% growth in revenue/non-GAAP net income, and we estimate a furtherexpansionin FCF margin to 38.4%(FY25:38.0%),driven by improvedprofitability.PANW consistently adheres tothe“rule of 50”,whichin our viewshouldprovidesupport for valuation.Our TPisnudged down to US$226.8(wasUS$229.7), based onanunchanged EV/sales multiple of 16.0x(inline with two-year average EV/sales plus 2 s.d). Maintain BUY. US Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Solid4Q25 results ahead of consensus expectation.In 4QFY25,subscription and support revenue grew14.8% YoY to US$2.0bn,1%aheadofconsensus, and accounted for77% of PANW’s total revenue (4QFY24:78%), while product revenue came in 4% ahead of consensus. Next-Generation Security (NGS)ARR reached US$5.58bn by end-4QFY25, up32.2% YoY (3QFY25:34.3%). Non-GAAP OP reached US$768.2mn, andtranslated intoa30.3% non-GAAP OPM, up3.4ppts YoY and1.5ppts betterthanconsensus,driven by more optimized-than-expected operatingexpense spend. We estimate1QFY26total revenue of US$2.46bn, up15%YoY, and non-GAAPNPofUS$635.7mn, up16.7%YoY. Joanna Ma(852)3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Source: FactSet NGS productsdelivered robust growth.In terms of key operating metrics:1) thenumberof active SASE customers reached >6,350in4QFY25, up18% YoY, andSASE ARR recorded35% YoY growth;2)XSIAM now has~400customers, up >2x YoY,and average ARR per XSIAMcustomerreached over US$1mn in 4QFY25. Total Cortex & Prisma Cloud ARRreached US$1.7bn in 4QFY25, up c.25% YoY.Driven by the robust ARRgrowth of SASE and XSIAM,management guided for US$7.0-7.1bn NGSARR in FY26, implying 26-27%growthYoY, which was a uplift compared tothe guidance of US$6.5bn sharedon 4QFY23 earnings call regardingmedium-term outlook. Platformization on track to meetlong-term goal.As of end-4QFY25,PANW achieved ~1,400totalPlatformizations with~150net new addsQoQ.Management highlighted continuous large deal wins which further validatesthePlatformization strategy: the number of accounts that had transactionsin4QFY25 totalling>US$5mn/>US$10mn NGS ARR reached 156/51respectively, up51%/50% YoY. FY26guidancewas ahead of consensus.The acquisition of CyberArk isanticipated to close in 2HFY26, which in our view shouldenhancePANW’scompetitive strength in identity security industry.Excludingthe impact ofCyberArk,for FY26,management expects:1)total revenue ofUS$10.475bn-10.525bn, up 14% YoYand 0.2-0.7% ahead of consensus;2) non-GAAP OPM toexpand 40-90bps YoY to 29.2%-29.7%(consensus:29.3%); 3) diluted non-GAAP EPSofUS$3.75-3.85(consensus: US$3.69),implying YoY growth of 12-15%; and 4)adj. FCF margin of 38.0-39.0%(consensus: 36.9%). Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, inwhole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his orher compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in thisreport.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in