成本降低，规模经济为利润铺平道路

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US/9868 HK) Cost reduction, economies of scale paveway for profit Maintain BUY.We are of the view that the GPM beat in 2Q25 largely reflectedXpeng’s superb cost reduction efforts on the facelifted models including theG6,G9andX9, despite lower selling prices. That could indicate solid GPMs in2H25E and FY26E, with more new/facelifted models andabetter model mix.We project a net profit of RMB255mn in 4Q25E and RMB4.2bn in FY26E. 2Q25 GPM beat.Xpeng’s 2Q25 revenue was 1.8%lower than our priorforecast, while vehicle marginwidened by 3.9ppts QoQ to 14.3%,or1.9ppts higher than our projection.R&D expenses in 2Q25 were aboutRMB200mn higher than our forecast, leading to an in-line operating loss.Net loss of RMB478mn in 2Q25 was about RMB186mn narrower than1Q25 and RMB75mn narrower than our forecast. China Auto GPMbeat reflects Xpeng’s cost reduction efforts on faceliftedmodels.We are of the view that the most important reason for the QoQ liftin vehicle GPM in 2Q25 was the significant margin improvement from thefaceliftedG6,G9andX9, despite price cuts for most configurations.Thatgives us more confidence in the margins for new models including theP7andX9EREV.We project vehicle GPM to rise by 0.5ppts/0.9ppts QoQ to14.8%/15.7% in 3Q25 and 4Q25, respectively, aided byabetter model mixand greater economies of scale. Well on track to turn profitable.We revise down our FY25E sales volumeforecast slightly by 10,000 units to 450,000 units to adjust for new modeldelivery schedules. We also revise up FY25E R&D expense forecast byRMB0.2bn to RMB8.6bn, as higher sales and margins give Xpeng moreflexibility in investinginnew models, robotics and AI.Therefore, we projecta net loss of RMB148mn in 3Q25E and a net profit of RMB255mn in 4Q25E.We still believe Xpeng could be close to a breakeven at the non-GAAP levelin 3Q25E. We raise our FY26E sales volume forecast by 20,000 units to620,000 units, mainly due to the newP7, as the company targetsatop 3best-selling BEV sedan priced RMB200,000-300,000for theP7, followingthe success of the XiaomiSU7and TeslaModel 3. We thusraiseFY26E netprofit by6% to RMB4.2bn, taking a possible tax credit into account. Source: FactSet Valuation/Key risks.We maintain our BUY rating and ADR/H share targetpriceof US$28.00/HK$110.00,still based on 1.8x FY26E P/S(unchanged). Key risks to our rating and target price include lower salesvolume and/or GPM than we expect, slower monetization timeline forrobots and a sector de-rating. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst norhis/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report;(2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interestsin the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential lossof over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to performin-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F,Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of ChinaMerchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in therepo