美联储观察：疲软数据与艰难抉择

FedWatcher:Soft data, hard choices Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com August5,2025 DB Fed Watcher: Soft data, hard choices Summary:Officials expressed varying degree of concerns on softening labor market, with some seeing it as manageable while some call forproactive easingDB View: Next rate cutinDec. 2 more 25bp cuts in Q1 2026 reaching a neutral level of 3.625%. Risks are skewed to earlier cuts Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. The green dots represent regional voters in 2025 and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officialsarerepresented by the gray dots. *Governor Kugler’s dot is greyed out as her resignation will be effective August 7. PresidentHarker’s dot is greyed out as Anna Paulson replaced him as Philadelphia Fed President in July 2025. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicChartbook:Julyemployment:Nofuninthesunforthelabormarket–Aug-01-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress Markets priced first cut in Sept with 90%probability, and 2+ cuts by December USEconomicNotes:Tarifftracker:HeatingupinAugust–Aug-01-2025 Webinar:Julyemploymentpreview&webinarregistration–Jul-31-2025 FedNotes:JulyFOMCrecap:StillquiteearlydaysforSeptembercuthopes–Jul-30-2025 Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank Webinar:USDratesoutlookaheadoftheJulyFOMC–Jul-30-2025 FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 PodzeptPodcast:MacroMATTers:Tariffsandinflation,tradedeals,andthreatstoremoveChairPowell–Jul-25-2025 FedNotes:JulyFOMCpreview:Seeyouontheotherside(oftariffinflation)–Jul24-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:RemovingPowellwon'tmovetheneedleonTreasurydebtcosts–Jul-23-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively'DeutscheBank').Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofth