柬埔寨房地产亮点2025年上半年

Knight Frank’s half-yearly review of markettrends in the Cambodia real estate market H1 2025 knightfrank.com.kh/research Content CambodiaEconomicSnapshotPhnom PenhOffice SectorPhnom PenhRetail SectorPhnom PenhHotel SectorPhnom PenhServiced Apartment SectorPhnom PenhCondominium Sector1357911Phnom PenhLanded Housing Sector13Phnom PenhIndustrial Sector15 Siem ReapReal Estate Overview17 21SihanoukvilleReal Estate Overview CambodiaEconomic Snapshot The World Bank has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to approximately 4.0%,down from 5.5%. This downgrade is attributed to weakening external demand,uncertainty in trade policies, and an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs)—7.9%for banks and 9% for microfinance, alongside corrections in the real estate sector. However, when excluding businessvisa holders and trans-frontierworkers, the number of leisuretourists is only 1.3 million, downfrom 1.5 million in 2019. Thissuggests that, although overallinternational travel has rebounded,the tourism segment has not yetreturned to its pre-pandemic levels.Furthermore, it was reported thattourist arrivals declined by as muchas 30% in June when the Cambodia-Thailand border was closed. Recent EconomicPerformance Despite facing trade challenges, overthe first five months of 2025, theCouncil for the Development ofCambodia (CDC) approved a total ofUS$4.2 billion worth of approvalsacross 290 projects. This figurerepresented a remarkable year-over-year increase of 90%. While therewas a notable increase in the value ofapproved Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) projects, the approveddomestic investment value declinedsignificantly, shrinking by 96.7% y/yto reach only US$23 million duringthe first quarter of 2025. Economic activity during H1 2025remained relatively robust butuneven, primarily driven by growthin the garment, travel goods, andfootwear sectors, as well asexpansion in non-garmentmanufacturing and services,particularly in the travel andtourism sector. Total goods exports, especially GTFgoods to the U.S. and EU markets,remained strong but showed signsof moderation, growing by 11.6%year-on-year (y/y) in the firstquarter of 2025. Economic Outlook Despite a notable surge ininvestment activity in the first fivemonths of 2025, the current globallandscape presents significantchallenges, leading to increaseduncertainty. Phnom Penh, which had experienceda construction and real estate boombefore the pandemic, was the worsthit. The decline in propertyconstruction, which has been crucialfor credit demand, privateinvestment, and economic growth,continues to impact overalleconomic activity in the capital. Cambodia's exports to the UnitedStates increased to over $4 billionbetween January and May 2025,representing a 27% rise compared tothe same period last year. However,goods exports will be affected bychanges in global trade policy,creating additional challenges.Following US President DonaldTrump’s announcement in April,the US imposed a 49% tariff onCambodia, which was renegotiateddown to 36% in July. Negotiationsare ongoing. Globally, Trump's tariffs could affectkey trading nations in NorthAmerica, Europe, and Asia. Thesepolicies may accelerate thelocalisationof supply chains in theU.S., creating strategic challenges forexporters who heavily rely on theAmerican market, includingCambodia. In March 2025, inflation increased to3.7 per cent year-over-year, mainlydue to rising food prices. Althoughrice prices remained stable, averageprices for meat, fish, fruits, andvegetables went up, leading to anacceleration in the food componentof the consumer price index. This isexpected to increase due to theclosure of the Cambodia-Thailandborder amid rising tensions, withmany products sold in Cambodiabeing imported from Thailand, mostnotably dairy products. Foreigntourist spending increased, but is stillwell below 2019 levels. In the firstquarter of 2025, international arrivalsreached 1.8 million, a 16.1% increasefrom the previous year, returning topre-pandemic levels overall. Adding to the uncertainty, theongoing discussions betweenThailand and Cambodia have posedchallenges for businesses operatingin both countries, particularly thoseinvolved in Cambodian-Thai trade,which have disrupted supply chainsand created market uncertainty. In light of concerns over a potentialeconomic downturn, theCambodian Government isreassessing its strategies. Shortlyafter the April announcement, theTrump administration initiated a90-day tariff pause for all countriesexcept China. This adjustmenttemporarilystabilisedexportdemand and alleviated immediateeconomic concerns for Cambodianbusinesses. The above notwithstanding, therevised growth forecast of 4.0% in2025 still represents strong growth,and the external challenges haveopened up medium and long-termopportunities for both the public andprivate sectors. Economic IndicatorsH12025 GDP Growth4.0% (2025f)WB Revised forecast Phnom PenhOffice Sector Phnom Penh’s office sector experienced steady growth