全球汽车行业研究：特朗普2.0时代的机遇与挑战

DBS Group Research . Equity 20 Jan 2025 2025: Positioningfor Trump 2.0 View our full data-driven analysisand more atDBS Insights Direct •Trump 2.0 to bring an era of volatility, uncertainty,complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) for autos;tradetariffs, policy shifts andinflationary pressures HSI:19,584.06 •2018-19 trade tensionswarn ofmarket volatility,auto partssupply disruptions and cost pressures Analysts Rachel Miu+65 91463634Elizabelle PANGrachel_miu@dbs.comelizabellepang@dbs.com •In2025,wefavour self-sufficient auto markets withhealthy growthdrivers(e.g., China, Japan); Chinaoutperformed duringpeak tensions in 2018-19 •Overweight on China and selective on Japan/EU;Top picks:Xpeng,Geely,Toyota,BMW, andFerrari Global auto to see growth in 2025;watchoutfortrade tensions.The global passenger vehicles (PV)market is to grow c.1.7%/c.1.5% in 2025F/2026F,supported by rate cuts and healthy China/Japan demand.However, trade tensions could pose headwinds to globalautomakers’ share prices and earningsdue topotentialauto part supply chain disruptionsand cost pressures–particularlyinmarkets reliant on imported parts (e.g.,theUS, Germany)–asillustratedbyUS-China trade tensionsin 2018-19. Prefer self-sufficient auto markets with healthy growth drivers.Withpotential trade escalations in 2025,history has taught us to positionwithself-sufficient automarkets–e.g., China and Japan–which couldholdgreaterresilience against supply chain disruptions and/or costpressures. Further, it is also key to position in growthareas, such as the likes of China,which outperformedglobal auto in 2018 on the back of surgingxEV sales (Fig 1).We forecast China and Japanauto marketswilloutperformglobal auto with 2025F PV growth at +4.0% on firmxEVdemand, policy support,and production recovery. Overweight on China, selective on Japan/EU;Xpeng,Geely, Toyota, BMW, and Ferrari as top picks.Weanticipate volatility in US’sauto stocks given itsmoderating2025 PV outlook, policy headwinds (e.g., roll back in IRA),tariff retaliations, etc. We favour China and Japan due totheir stronger 2025 outlooksand localised auto partssupply chains, withXpeng,GeelyandToyotaas top picks.WhiletheEU is forecasted to see muted PV growth in 2025,Ferrari’s strong orderbook until 2026 provides robustearnings visibility whileBMWis best positioned to weathertheEU’s upcoming CO2 regulations. ed:PJ/ sa:AS, PY, CS Our view for 2025by markets: Positive on China and Japanauto markets. We anticipate outperformance in 2025 PVsales growth by China and Japan at +4.0% y/yfor each.China auto is expected to see healthy fundamental demandon extension of auto stimulus policy to back firm xEVdemand, while Japan is poised for a recovery after animpacted 2024. 2025outlook Global PV market to grow 1.7%/1.5% in 2025F/2026F. 2024F PV sales grew 1.7% from 2023 levels, lifted by firmgrowth in China andtheUS but dragged down by Japan onquality-related scandals. For 2025F, we forecastahealthygrowthof approximately +c.1.7% (Fig 2),largely inline withconsensusand withtheglobal auto sector’s 10-yearmedian historical growth rates. Slight rate cutsmaysupportauto demand and bring relief to consumer concerns onhigh interest rates and car affordability.On this,DBSforecaststhe Fedwill enact ratecuts of50bps in 2025 andanother 50bps in 2026. Across different markets,positiveauto sectoroutlookson Chinaand Japan continue tounderpin global auto growthin 2025F/2026F, offset bymore muted outlook from the US andtheEU. On the other hand, we forecastslightgrowth of +1.5%forUS’sauto sales(moderating from 2024’s growth of +3%)onongoing trade tensions, especially asitseeks to implementwidespread tariffs onto Mexico and Canada (both majorauto manufacturing hubs for US automakers) as well asChina (amajor global auto parts supplier). Elevated inflationand slower-than-expected ratecuts could result in moremuted auto demand in the US. Lastly, we forecast EU’s PV growth to be flattish. While xEVdemand could pick up from 2025 astheEUreadiestoimplement its CO2 regulations, we see tapering EVsubsidies, EV tariffs,and political uncertainty in major EUeconomies (i.e., Germany, France) as the biggestheadwinds. Refer to Fig 3 on the next page for a summaryof our geographical coverage forecast. Trade tensions the key theme for 2025:Position in self-sufficient auto markets with healthy growth drivers. Ongoing trade tensions between the US and majoreconomies will be thekeyheadwind to watchfor in2025.History (referencingthe2018-2019 US-China trade conflict)warns us of potential supply chain disruptions and/or costpressures on auto parts, which could pose downsides toautomakers’ margins and earnings. As such, we prefergeographical markets with self-sufficient domestic autoparts supply chain, such as China and Japan, which webelieve could be better positioned to weather supply chaindisruptions and/or cost pressures from higher trade tariffs.Positioning in markets with strong fundamental growthdrivers is also key;during pe