如果美国对欧盟商品征收30%关税会怎样？

What iftariffson EU goodsincrease up to 30%? If the US were to increasetariffson EU goods up to 30%, wewould expect retaliation from the EU, a more prolonged anddeeper economic slowdown, the ECB to cut policy rates to 1%by Q1 26, lower EUR core rates, EURUSD to come underpressure and the EU equity market resilience to be put to thetest. Economics Silvia Ardagna(ii)+ 44 (0) 20 7773 1715silvia.ardagna@barclays.comBarclays, UK Mariano Cena(ii)+44 (0) 20 7773 0727mariano.cena@barclays.comBarclays, UK We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel Global Fixed-Income Research Survey.Viewour analysts »Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » European Rates ResearchRohan Khanna(i)+44 (0) 20 7773 0533rohan.khanna1@barclays.comBarclays, UK •US Public Policy: While we do not foreclose the possibility that the US and EU can still reach aprovisional agreement by August 1 that maintains the averagetariffon most EU goods at10%, we think it may be more likely than not that thetariffon the EU increases from 10%, butshort of 30%. We also expect more sectoraltariffsto be announced, which could cover a largefraction of EU exports to the US. FX Strategy LefterisFarmakis(i)+44 (0) 20 3555 6549lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK •EA Economics: Given high uncertainty on the outcome of negotiations, at this stage, we donot change our economic forecasts or our ECB call of a pause at the July meeting, followed bytwo 25bp policy rate cuts at the September and December meetings. These are based on thekey assumption of an averagetariffrate on EU goods exported to the US of c. 15%. Highertariffsfrom August 1 would imply a deeper near-term contraction in economic activity and amore accommodative monetary policy stance with the deposit rate cut to 1% by Q1 26. Themistoklis Fiotakis(i)+44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK European Equity StrategyEmmanuel Cau, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0475emmanuel.cau@barclays.comBarclays, UK Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 5983magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Emmanuel Makonga+44 (0)20 7773 2593emmanuel.makonga@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. (i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Public Policy Michael McLean(v)+1 212 526 9393michael.mclean@barclays.comBCI, US (ii)This author is a member of the Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Researchdepartment and is not an equity or debt research analyst. (v)This author is a registered US equity research analyst who is subject to US FINRA Rule 2241and who may write debt research under FINRA Rule 2242. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.Completed: 14-Jul-25, 01:56 GMTReleased: 14-Jul-25, 02:00 GMTRestricted - External •Rates: While longs in the EUR front-end, with less than one cut priced by end-2025,offeredasymmetric value, a catalyst was needed to activate it. To the extent that the market treatsthe 30%tariffthreat as credible (and that is a big if), we should see the money market curveflatten as we add more cut-premium to meetings this year, 1y1y ESTR slipping below 1.5%and Bunds sliding to below 2.5%, with the curve bull steepening. •FX: The EUR has been the top-performing anti-dollar currency since Liberation Day. It could,however, be faced with a less rosy environment should President Trump follow through onhis 30%tariffthreat. This is due to a more adverse macro and policy outlook in Europe alongwith fairly limited retaliation by other trading partners, which limits dollar damage. •Equities: The threat of 30% UStariffson the EU will put the TACO trade to test. A full blowntrade war and deeper recession would likely send equities down double digit, as seen in theimmediateaftermathof Liberation day. But we are not quite there yet, and we are scepticaltariffsw