驾驭动荡时代：货运的未来

Navigating a volatile timeThe future of freight Deloitte’s Transportation practice applies a six-force model to evaluateimpacts on freight markets today and into the future. Since our last report in2022, significant shifts have taken place in each of these domains. Some of what we are seeing: •Innovations in autonomous vehicles, electricvehicles, alternative fuel, and telematics areexpected to continue to front-run significantchanges to fleets. •Nearshoring will likely continue to conferbenefits and challenges to trucking, third-partylogistics (3PL), and rail companies. The six forces that shape thefuture of freight •Technological shifts appear to be picking upacross all modes of transportation, necessitatingpartnerships with both technology providers andoutsource partners. •Companies that want to shape bettergovernment policies are finding ways tocollaborate with the public sector to helpallocate capital effectively. 1.Nearshoring2.Technology and data3.Changing competitive dynamics4.Restructuring5.Fleet transformation6.Public/private partnerships •Some incumbents are looking to disrupt marketsas much—or more—than startups, as theycontinue to evaluate their configuration acrossmarkets to maximize shareholder value. Freight’s resilience may hinge on recognizing its geopolitical interdependence, deepening public-privatecollaboration, and rigorously scenario-planning for uncertain futures. Now more than ever, the future is a moving targetLiving in a wildcard world The freight landscape is increasingly unpredictable. Geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic shifts, new technologies,and business models are creating an operating environment unlike any we have seen. 69% Bottom line Fundamentals ofeconomic truth willremain. Until then,uncertainty is the onlysafe bet. Increase in value of global trade from2019 to 2024 ($19T to $33T)1 In North American transborderfreight, an increase of 8.4% March2024 to March 20253 Current range of proposed tariffsbetween the US and other countries2 $15B 35 45%–60% Today, there are 35 deals above US$1billion totaling roughly US$400 billionin deal value, pending approval byregulators Estimated probability of recession inthe US in the next 12 months, drivenbya number ofmacroeconomicfactors5 Amazon’s investment in ~80additional logistics facilities in the US,among other companies6 The golden rule of volatility:Stay opento multiplefutures Fooling around with alternatingcurrent is a waste of time, no one willuse it, ever.”—Thomas Edison, 1889 I think there is a world market formaybe five computers.” —Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 Plotting a path in an unsure timeWhen you predict a single future, youare almost guaranteed to be wrong. There’s just not that many videos Iwant to watch.” There’s practically no chancecommunications space satellites willbe used to provide better telephone,telegraph, television, or radio servicein the United States.” —Steve Chen, founder of YouTube, 2005 —T. Kraven, FCC Commissioner, 1961 Deloitte Chief Futurist Eamonn Kelly on what we think about when we think about the future of global transportationWhere we’re headed Geopolitical trends:Trade, tariffs, and national industrial policies show an ongoing trend away from global trading,which underpinned the development of supply and transportation networks over the past few decades. Choicesmade during the pandemic era have unleashed consequential changes that will likely demand the attention oftransportation leaders, boards, and policymakers for decades to come. Environmental impact:This area will emerge as a counterbalance to the economic advantages of global trade.Global supply chains have a significant impact on the environment. In the coming decades, broad societal forces willdemand the restoration of balance. Extreme weather and environmental shifts may cause disruptions to thepredictability of long-distance and nearshoremaritime shipping. “The global transportationindustry is expected to bereshaped by geopoliticaltrends, the impact ofenvironmental changes,and exponential advancesin technology.” Technology:Over the next few years, expect to see advances in technologies including machine learning, computervision, artificial intelligence, large-scale simulation, and more. Transportation is adopting these technologies at apace dictated by their economics—a pace that can be expected to increase, as gains rise and costs fall. Scenario planning hedges uncertainty:The process of working with multiple potential scenarios—including worst-and best-case scenarios, and the possibilities in between—remains leaders’ best hedge against the uncertainties ofa volatile world. Eamonn KellyChief FuturistDeloitte Office for the Future Six interrelated and overlapping forces help understand the dynamics of freight now and into the futureForces shaping the future of freight 1Manufacturing, closer to consumersNearshoring Nearshoring is impacting foreign direct investment, manufacturing,